The persona around tonight’s Allstate Sugar Bowl defines the end of the college football season. For Georgia, the appearance is a disappointing way to end the season, but for Baylor, it is satisfactory — and maybe even an accomplishment.

How They Got Here

Georgia (11-2)

The Bulldogs’ 37-10 loss to LSU in the SEC Championship on Dec. 7th knocked them out of contention for the College Football Playoff, and now the question is whether or not they will play inspired. There’s still some questions about whether some of their players will play at all.

The team has said Dominick Blaylock, who tore his ACL in the first quarter of the SEC Championship game, and Lawrence Cager, who has only played in nine games this season, will not play.

Either way, it will be interesting to see how the players who are out there will respond to being in a game that doesn’t dictate their place in the postseason. 

But it’s so important for Georgia to control both sides of the ball to contain Baylor’s high-powered offense. The Bulldogs head into the game allowing 274.2 yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NCAA.

Baylor (11-2)

Quarterback Charlie Brewer exitted Baylor’s 30-23 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game with concussion-like symptoms, but will play tonight after being cleared on Dec. 21st. The Bears, however, are ahead of schedule three seasons into the Matt Rhule era and still feeling the impacts of the loss. It was the second time they lost to the Sooners in a month, costing them a spot in the College Football Playoff.

All season, Baylor’s heartbeat has been the running game, which has been the recipe for touchdowns. In total, the Bears have over 1,000 more passing yards than rushing yards, but have 11 more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns.  

In their second loss to Oklahoma, the Bears rushed for just 35 yards and finished with 1.2 yards per carry. Overall, the Bears averaged 192 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. In their losses, they only rushed for 72 yards and one touchdown.

Player to Watch

Georgia: Jake Fromm

Jake Fromm has had an up-and-down season, and Georgia’s season has fluctuated with his play. The numbers suggest that this game will be decided by which version of Fromm shows up: in games the Bulldogs have won, the quarterback has 20 touchdowns without an interception, and in their losses, he has just two touchdowns and five interceptions.

But this game will have an impact on his draft stock, considering he is a junior and can pursue the NFL if he chooses, and many of the numbers suggest he may struggle.

Over his last five games, he has completed under 50 percent of his passes, but looking more broadly, he hasn’t thrown for 300 yards this season — and has seven games under 200 yards. On top of that, the Bears haven’t allowed a quarterback to reach 300 passing yards in any of their past six games.  

Baylor: Charlie Brewer 

Rhule said this game is an opportunity for quarterback Charlie Brewer to grow as a player, because he’s facing the best defense he has all season. Oklahoma was the only ranked team they faced during the regular season, and the Bears ranked 49th in the NCAA in strength of schedule, per ESPN. Even so, Brewer didn’t play the majority of the second game against Oklahoma, meaning he really only has one game of experience against a top-tier defense like Georgia’s.

Throughout the season, Brewer has been able to run around in the pocket, Rhule said, but he’s not going to be able to do so against Georgia, which has some of the best athletes in the country.  He’s going to have to get the ball out faster than usual and might have to rely on his legs to buy more time against a Georgia defense that ranked third in the SEC in yards lost on sacks. 

But I’m looking forward to seeing how the junior quarterback fares in this one. The 3,000-yard passer will have to expand his game tonight, and that’s something he’s struggled with this season. In 13 games this season, he only has 337 rushing yards, but he does have 10 rushing touchdowns, so he may have it in him.

Betting Picks: Baylor +3.5, O/U 43.5 

I don’t think the Bears will cover on this one; I think there’s a wide gap between these two teams, and I’ll go with the over. I’m going with 31-20, Bulldogs.