Record to Date: 12-18-2
Last week was brutal. The Oregon beat is one of the worst of my entire life. They had a 99% win probability TWICE during the second half and couldn’t close it out. I admittedly went too hard on FAU. I should’ve stuck with the 1H number that I loved. I nailed South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Missouri, but this really should have been a winning week. .500 ball isn’t good enough, but as the season goes on we will just keep winning more. Let’s go.
Arkansas @ Texas A&M (-21) o/u 61
Arkansas might be the worst SEC team these eyes have ever seen. Auburn covered their 30 point spread against them last week. The week before North Texas beat them by TWENTY SEVEN points. The week before THAT they lost to Colorado State who is horrendous. Meanwhile, Texas A&M easily could have beaten Clemson earlier this season and is the only team to cover against Alabama. This line opened at -16.5 and has jumped to 21 already. It doesn’t matter to me. I would take it at 28.
STAT OF THE WEEK: Texas A&M is one of only 8 teams that are still undefeated against the spread. POUND IT.
Pick: Texas A&M -21
Army @ Buffalo (-7) o/u 54.5
I love my Buffs. I bet on them last week against Rutgers and they made Rutgers look like high schoolers out there. This Buffalo team is not a joke. Army meanwhile is coming off of an awesome performance against Oklahoma which mostly accounts for this line. Army is 116th in the nation in defensive S&P. Their special teams is even worse which ranks 128th in S&P. Buffalo is 32nd in special teams S&P. Those types of things make a huge difference in a game like this. With Buffalo being at home I think they have this one under control.
Pick: Buffalo -7
Virginia Tech @ Duke (-5) o/u 50.5
Obviously this was the upset of the weekend. I am from the 757 so I was fired up to see the Monarchs pull this one off. All the credit in the world to them. However, this was a fluke. Virginia Tech is a good team that thought they didn’t have to show up. Justin Fuente is not a coach that will let them get away with this. He is going to work this team’s ass off until they are as prepared as humanly possible for Duke. Duke has had a great year so far and are now ranked in the top 25. Virginia Tech has the 4th best special teams in the nation. The field position battle is going to be huge in this one and I think VT is going to come out PISSED. All over them in this one.
Pick: VT +5, VT 1H +3
South Carolina @ Kentucky (+1)
“Kentucky gets no respect!” -Rodney Dangerfield if he was a Cayts fan. That’s my comedy bit of the day. I hope you liked it. Now on to the football. Kentucky has been awesome this year. They beat Florida for the first time in a thousand years and just beat Mississippi State as 10 point dogs. For those that don’t know Kentucky has beaten South Carolina four years in a row. Some BAD Kentucky teams have beaten some pretty good Carolina teams. But this year the roles are reversed and South Carolina is ready to spoil Kentucky’s season. A lot of teams have overlooked the Cayts. South Carolina is the last team that would do that. They looked awesome against Vanderbilt and I think they will keep it rolling into Lexington. The oddsmakers still are giving the Gamecocks love for a reason.
Pick: South Carolina ML +105
Cal vs. Oregon (-2.5) o/u 58
I AM READY TO BE HURT AGAIN! Last week Oregon was one of my favorite bets and I will stand that I capped it correctly. Legit one of my worst beats ever. But I am ready to get back out there and have my heart broken again. I love Oregon. For all the same reasons that they SHOULD HAVE won last week. For 45 minutes they were a much better team than Stanford. They are going to come out pissed in this one. My only reason for betting this is that I need Oregon to redeem themselves in my heart (I also think they’re a better team).
Pick: Oregon -2.5
FCS BET OF THE WEEK
Western Carolina @ Furman (-3.5)
I love these games. FCS bets are now 1-1 on the season and there is NO CHANCE I don’t push that record above .500 this week. Why? Because I am riding the Western Carolina Catamounts baby. There offense is awesome. They’re averaging 38 points a game led by their dual threat quarterback Tyrie Adams. Last week against VMI he threw for over 200 yards, ran for over 100, and scored 4 total touchdowns. As a team they ran for 326 yards. Furman on the other hand gave up 45 points and 275 yards against Elon earlier this year. They’re also coming off a loss to East Tennessee State and are favored in this game. Woof. Let’s keep it rolling Catamounts.
Pick: Western Carolina +3.5
I have a fantastic feeling about this week. Bookmakers across America are shivering at the thought of Blakey Locks catching fire. I’ve had two positive weekends in a row myself and have just had bad luck about what I put in the post. Follow me @BlakeKrass on Twitter for all of my picks. But the readers will be rewarded this week. Let’s get rich together.