Record to Date: 8-14-2 (-5 units)
We finally found our level last week. Week One went really well, week two went really bad, and week three finally evened out. Buying the half point on Wake Forest saved us the push, UAB won outright as an underdog, and our first ever FCS Bet of the Week was a winner! This weekend I have a feeling we are going to roll over bookies worldwide. So let’s get right into it.
FAU @ UCF (-13.5) o/u 76
I’ve been low on UCF all year. I think their rating has been boosted all year because of last year’s performance. Meanwhile the Lane Train is running at full force. A lot of people got down on FAU after getting smoked by Oklahoma but that was honestly just a total mismatch. I have THREE BETS I love for this Friday night matchup. I can’t get enough. So, UCF had their game last week rained out. Some say that will help them because of all the rest. Well, history says otherwise. The rust outweighs the rest in these past situations.
When a team on at least 10 days between games faces a team on less than a full week of rest, the team on extended rest is just a few games below .500. The team on extended rest is 24-33-1 against the first-half spread, possibly due to rust. And when that team is listed as the favorite, it is 10-21 ATS (-11.8 units), failing to cover the first-half spread by an average of more than four points.
Professionals have also been pushing the total to a UGE number. I can’t wait to feed off the scraps of their fine work. I’m all in on the UCF rust.
Pick: FAU +14 (buy the half point), FAU 1H +7, u76
Georgia @ Missouri (+15) o/u 65
These are two of the most electrifying offenses in college football. Jake Fromm and Drew Lock are both going to throw the ball over the field. The question is which defense is going to step up and make a play. Missouri and Georgia have both scored at least 40 points in their first three games this season. I have confidence Georgia takes this one home, but with that big of a number you have to go with Missouri. I think their offense is still going to be able to put up a ton of points and being at home, the defense will do just enough to keep it within two touchdowns. Georgia also has 86% of bets on them in this game. Betting tip: the public is really dumb.
Pick: Missouri +15
Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina (-2.5) o/u 54.5
— Gamecock Football (@GamecockFB) September 18, 2018
I know. I know. I’ve done this to you before. But Will Muschamp’s coaching style actually makes me love SC coming off a week’s rest. He is not a coach that will allow a team to come out flat or lacking energy. They are simply not in the same league as Georgia and we learned that two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt played super tight against Notre Dame last week. That’s why this line seems like a wild overreaction to me. South Carolina is easily a touchdown better than Vanderbilt on a neutral site. Therefore the line should at least be -4 since Vanderbilt doesn’t have much of a home field advantage.
P.S. I’m going to be at this game so that makes a big difference
Pick: South Carolina ML -125 (better safe than sorry)
Oregon vs. Stanford (-2) o/u56
This is the craziest line of the day for me. I know people are in love with Stanford right now, but I’ve been saying Stanford is overrated all year. Granted, they have proved me wrong so far. But I have been waiting to pounce and this is the perfect moment. The fact that Oregon is an underdog at home is INSANE! The Ducks have moved from -2 to +2 due to the money coming in on Stanford and frankly I couldn’t be happier. Bryce Love has been non existent. The Stanford defense has carried them so far, but that won’t be enough coming to Eugene. All about the Ducks this weekend.
Pick: Oregon +2
Wisconsin @ Iowa (+3) o/u 43
This might be one people are unhappy about. I love Iowa. My mom’s whole side of the family went to Iowa. My grandpa has a library named after him at Iowa!!! Iowa is not going to win this football game. All of these things are facts. Wisconsin had an all time embarrassing loss last week. To be able to make the playoff they are going to need to win out, including the Big Ten Championship Game. Even that may be enough. But coming off of that loss, I think they are going to be pissed. They plain and simple did not show up last week. Again, I love Iowa, but at the end of the day if both teams play their best, Wisconsin is a better team. I think the Badgers play their best game of the season in a bounce back spot like you read about.
Pick: Wisconsin -3
FCS BET OF THE WEEK
McNeese State @ BYU (-20.5)
FCS bets of the week are 1-0 so far. This might be the most successful betting franchise in America soon enough. I love the value in these FCS guys. McNeese State is a very talented ranked FCS team who is 3-0 on the season so far. BYU is obviously coming off of the upset of the year in college football so far after beating Wisconsin. However, they’ve also lost a home game to Cal this season. They played their game of the season last week and we will see MAJOR regression this week. McNeese State meanwhile will come in playing like BYU did last week. Playing a top 25 FBS opponent is huge for them. I love em in this spot.
Bonus Fact: McNeese State has the heaviest player in college football.
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 20, 2018
OVER FOUR TONS!!!! Look at the size of this lad!! Absolute unit!!!! I know what you’re thinking… he doesn’t look fat, he’s only 5’10, no human weighs that much, it must be a typo. Well I personally choose to believe in something, even if it means risking everything. So I’m betting on 8,578 pounder Cory McCoy and McNeese State.
Pick: McNeese State +21 (buy half point)
Let’s get rich this weekend. I’m feeling a sweep. Let’s roll.