Record to Date: 15-22-2
Another week, another stretch of bad luck for me. I played my biggest college football slate of the year last Saturday and went 15-10. Really good day and I was very happy with it. However, I once again picked the wrong games into my best bets article. This week, that changes. That is my solemn promise to you, the reader. Let’s ride.
Northwestern @ Michigan State (-9.5), o/u 43)
Sparty has overall disappointed this year. They were in a nail biter Week One against Utah State (who I was on in that game not to brag) and lost to Herm’s Sun Devils to put in end to their playoff hopes early. But I still think the talent is there for Michigan State. They’re going to get into the meat of their Big 10 schedule soon and they would love to get some momentum going into that stretch. This Northwestern team is the perfect time for them to do that. Michigan State actually ranks 10th in the country in efficiency and 21st in S&P+. They’re playing really well, they just haven’t been able to put teams away. Northwestern has had a really tough year and lost their lead running back for the season two weeks ago. If Michigan State is ever going to have a dominant showing it’ll be this Saturday.
Pick: Michigan State -9.5
Boston College @ NC State (-6.5) o/u 59.5
In this one I am all about the over. Boston College is averaging 43 points a game this season and have hit the over in 4 of their 5 games. Meanwhile, NC State quarterback Ryan Finley has led one of the nation’s top passing attacks with 342 yards per game. Let’s get to the defense and let me tell you, it’s not pretty. Despite being 4-1 and 4-0 respectively, BC and NCST are both allowing 35 points a game. If they’ve been giving up that many points to everybody they play, imagine what those explosive offenses will do to each other. We’re going to see POINTS POINTS POINTS! This will be a fun game to watch on ESPN a 12:30 if you’re looking for some early entertainment.
Pick: Boston College o59.5
LSU @ Florida (+3) o/u 44.5
This is arguably the biggest game of the weekend. After being doubted all off-season Coach O has gotten his boys to a 5-0 start and the #5 spot in the AP poll. They have two wins against Top 10 teams and somehow still haven’t played the hardest stretch of their schedule. This game at Florida will be a huge test. Florida started the season disappointing (per usual) by losing to Kentucky for the first time in a millennium. Well, we’ve since learned that Kentucky is actually good and Florida has redeemed themselves by routing Tennessee and getting a huge win at Mississippi State.
These two defenses both seem like the realest of deals. Florida’s hopes of an SEC Championship birth are still very much alive. Assuming Georgia beats Kentucky and the Cats drop one more game in the SEC then Florida beats UGA in Jacksonville at the Cocktail Party then Florida could find themselves in the SEC Championship Game. Meanwhile, LSU obviously controls their own destiny all the way to the College Football Playoff, but will need to beat a lot of tough teams along the way, including Alabama. Both teams NEED a win here. In the SEC, you take the home side. As much as I’ve been proved wrong I don’t think LSU is a top 5 team in the country. Joe Burrow still isn’t the guy.
Pick: Florida +3
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech (+7) o/u 55.5
This one is going to be a wild game. I hate to say it, but I have a million factors in this one that play into my pick and ZERO of them contain football. I’m going to lay them out for you.
1. It’s Notre Dame. The curse of Manti Te’o’s fake girlfriend will never leave this team. Since that happened they were slaughtered by Bama in the National Championship game and have not had an elite team since. People are talking about them going undefeated and making the playoff. Not gonna happen. Great spot for them to lose here.
2. Frank Beamer is getting his statue at Virginia Tech Saturday night. Frank Beamer is VT royalty. They worship that man for his blocked punts and 0-0 ties. His statue night will only add to the insane atmosphere in Blacksburg.
3. Reason number three is that right there. The atmosphere. Being from Virginia, I know a bunch of people that went to Tech and I love to make fun of them. But I would be lying to myself if I said Enter Sandman wasn’t a top three (maybe top 1) entrance in college football. Notre Dame is too soft to handle it. I mean look at this shit.
Pick: Hokies +7
FCS BET OF THE WEEK
There are no games between an FBS and FCS team this weekend. I also don’t really see anything on the board in FCS matchups that I like. Therefore, I am refining the segment to the “Might As Well Be FCS Teams Bet of the Week.”
Ohio @ Kent State (+12.5) o/u 68.5
I love me some MACtion. Once we get it on Tuesday nights we’ll really be talking, but for now I’ll take it. My betting rule that I have no data to back up is that you always bet a home dog in the MAC. That’s what makes the MAC so great, anybody can beat anybody on any given night. So when you have a team with their high school student section at their back, you take em to the bank.
My X-Factor: Kent State is 8/13 on fourth down conversions this year. That means they go for it on fourth down almost four times a game and convert it 61% of the time. Kent State is afraid to take risks and when they do it pays off. I love it.
Pick: Kent State +12.5
Good luck this weekend folks. Follow me on Twitter @BlakeKrass for my full card for the weekend. Let’s get rich.