Week One Record- 5-8-1 (-1.4 units)
Week One was tough. Week One is always tough. Despite months of offseason research, you don’t know what a team is going to do until you actually watch them play a football game. Week One is almost always my worst week of the season and the fact that we made it out alive is a blessing. This week we have real film and real box scores to work with and find great spots in Week Two. S/O to Virginia Tech for saving the week by covering the 7.5 and winning outright for the +255 money line. To be fair to the readers I am only updating my record with the bets from the best bet articles but follow me on Twitter @BlakeKrass to keep up to date with any last minute bets or live bets I may be placing. Without further ado, let’s get into Week Two:
Arizona @ Houston (-4.5) o/u 72
Last week Arizona lost to BYU 28-23 in a game in which they were favored by 11 points. A lot of people are concerned that Kevin Sumlin isn’t letting Kahlil Tate be Kahlil Tate. That’s ridiculous. If Kevin Sumlin could handle Johnny Manziel, he can handle any QB. Last week, I talked about betting against teams that don’t have a returning QB/Head Coach combo. This week I’m looking to bet ON those teams and play on the overreaction after their Week One struggles. Houston looked pretty good last week in their game against Rice, but Rice stinks and Houston still allowed them to score 27 points. I think Khalil Tate is going to eat that defense alive.
Pick: Arizona +4.5, o72
South Carolina vs. Georgia (-10) o/u 55.5
The biggest game of the year for me as a Gamecock fan. I love how South Carolina looked last week and a win against UGA would put them in the drivers seat in the SEC East. I think this is going to be a high scoring affair between these two high octane offenses. As the great Steve Spurrier once said,
I sort of always liked playing them [Georgia] that second game because you could always count on them having two or three key players suspended.
Maybe I’m biased, (I for sure am) but there is an electricity in the air in Columbia, SC I haven’t felt since 2014, the last time we upset the Dawgs. I’ll have a full SC-Georgia preview coming tomorrow, but I just wanted to make it clear I am on my Gamecocks.
Pick: South Carolina +10 (I’m also taking the ML, but I won’t make you do that)
Arizona State vs. Michigan State (-6) o/u 53
This one may surprise some people. Last week, Michigan State did not look great. It took some late heroics to beat Utah State at home, which is obviously a bad look. However, a lot of people don’t realize Utah State actually has a pretty good team. I love Michigan State this season, but was still on the Utah State +23.5 because I thought that line was way too big. Obviously a little too close for comfort at the end, but I’m not worried about Sparty. Meanwhile, Herm Edwards got his first win as a collegiate head coach as ASU trounced UTSA. Well, newsflash: UTSA is really bad. This line is a major overreaction. Arizona State is not a good football team and Michigan State is a very good football team. 6 points is an insult.
Pick: Michigan State -6
USC @ Stanford (-5.5) o/u 56.5
Another pick that may surprise people, but I’m all over the Trojans. If you look at the scoreboard it’s easy to think that Stanford was dominant against SDSU, but they really weren’t. Bryce Love ran for 29 yards on 18 carries!!!! That’s a top 2 running back in the country that got absolutely nothing done. SDSU just refused to score the football, but they were in that game until the very end. Stanford did not play well at all. Meanwhile, USC’s offense looked great. The most important thing to look at is how they finished the game. After struggling early USC came out and put 24 points on the board in the 4th quarter to shut down UNLV. They obviously figured things out offensively and I think they’ll keep that riding into Stanford. The Trees fall Saturday.
Pick: USC +5.5
UVA @ Indiana (-6.5) o/u 51.5
Last week UVA put a whooping on the Richmond Spiders. UVA is a perennially bad team, while Richmond is always a top FCS school. That’s the only reason I can think of for the 14.5 line that UVA slaughtered last week. Anybody who’s paying attention knows this UVA team is different than years past. Their new QB Bryce Perkins is a dual threat guy and the best playmaker to come through UVA since Tiki Barber. Indiana looked alright last week, but failed to cover 13 points against FIU. Their defense struggled to contain FIU and I think they stand no chance against Bronco’s Boys. I think UVA has a chance to win this one outright.
Pick: UVA +6.5
Let’s get rich this week.