I’ve been building this NFL predictive model for close to two seasons now with great results. I figured that now is as good of a time as any to make these numbers public to help everyone out! NFL Week 14 is already upon us and lines are getting tight. This week I also used these numbers to project the outcomes of the NFC East. This model was okay at the start of the year but is really beginning to pick things up.
Week 13 Performance
9-6 Straight Up
9-6 ATS
8-7 OU
Season To Date Performance
106-70 Straight Up (60.23%)
100-73-3 ATS (57.80%)
89-84-3 OU (51.44%)
*Records Graded Against Closing Lines on the Action Network.
Week 14 Score Projections
| Away Team | Home Team | Away Score | Home Score |
| Patriots | Rams | 25 | 29 |
| Texans | Bears | 29 | 28 |
| Vikings | Buccaneers | 32 | 29 |
| Titans | Jaguars | 34 | 23 |
| Cowboys | Bengals | 25 | 28 |
| Cardinals | Giants | 27 | 26 |
| Broncos | Panthers | 26 | 23 |
| Chiefs | Dolphins | 32 | 25 |
| Colts | Raiders | 31 | 26 |
| Jets | Seahawks | 21 | 35 |
| Packers | Lions | 36 | 27 |
| Falcons | Chargers | 26 | 25 |
| Washington | 49ers | 22 | 24 |
| Saints | Eagles | 30 | 22 |
| Steelers | Bills | 27 | 26 |
| Ravens | Browns | 26 | 31 |
How To Use This Model
This model has had the best return on spread picks this season and last season. You would be best served using it to pick moneyline underdogs and picks against the spread. Early season scoring has inflated my totals on the backside of the season, so I’d only trust a total bet if it’s to the under.
Week 14 Model Best Bets
Cleveland ML (EVEN)
Minnesota +6.5
Tennessee -7.5