Originally posted before legal tampering/free agency: updated edition coming soon!
There’s nothing else to write about, so it’s time to talk about the NFL Draft. As maybe the only sports event still slated to actually happen, the draft is going to get a lot of attention in the coming weeks. Expect to see a lot of wide receivers go early. Expect surprises with the quarterbacks because there are always quarterback surprises. Here’s how all 32 pick of the first round look before free agency, but with some free agency predictions sprinkled in.
1. Cincinnati Bengals – QB Joe Burrow, LSU
This is as easy as it gets. Burrow is coming off the best season a college quarterback has ever had. He threw for sixty (60!) touchdowns and over 5,500 yards while leading LSU to a 15-0 season. His feel for the pocket is incredible and he can make any throw asked of him. What stands out to me with Burrow is his personality. He is extremely confident. That combined with exceptional IQ are going to make him the face of Cincinnati for a very long time.
2. Washington – EDGE Chase Young, Ohio State
This mock draft pick is written in stone. The NFL Draft is likely heading the same direction. The Bengals are going to draft Joe Burrow. Washington is going to draft Chase Young. There’s been talk about Tua Tagovailoa or trading the pick, but Washington isn’t going to pass on one of the best edge prospects ever. The Washington defensive line would immediately become one of the best in the league and could jumpstart a very quick turnaround in D.C.
3. Detroit Lions – CB Jeff Okudah, Ohio State
Jeff Okudah is the best cornerback prospect since at least Jalen Ramsey and maybe even Patrick Peterson. That’s good company. The fit in Detroit is perfect as they have a glaring need at corner with Darius Slay’s imminent trade. I do think they’ll likely trade this pick and get Okudah at another spot, but it’s hard to see Okudah anywhere other than Detroit.
4. New York Giants – LB Isaiah Simmons, Clemson
Dave Gettleman and the New York Giants have been a fan of flashy players and big-named picks for years and that isn’t going to change this year. I think they’d be better off taking a tackle to protect both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. However, this wouldn’t be a bad pick. Simmons could be a wrecking ball from day one if he’s put in the right situation and is one of the most versatile defensive prospects in a very long time.
5. Miami Dolphins – QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Tua to Miami feels like it’s been destined for quite a long time. It was #TankForTua and then they played themselves out of the first pick just in time for Burrow to pass Tua as QB1. It’s destiny. Miami can play Ryan Fitzpatrick for a year to let Tua heal and then he, combined with their picks this year and next, could have Miami set to replace the Patriots as the dominant force the AFC East.
6. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Jedrick Wills Jr, Alabama
To start this off, I think the Chargers are going to sign Teddy Bridgewater. That would mean the team wouldn’t have a hole at QB and would definitely need some more help on the offensive line and Jedrick Wills it the best tackle in the draft. He’ll fill a major hole at left or right tackle for LA.
7. Carolina Panthers – DT Derrick Brown, Auburn
The Panthers need a cornerback, but there’s nobody of value here. They need a linebacker, but drafting Kenneth Murray or Patrick Queen would be a major reach. So, they’ll draft a top 10 player in the draft to fix their interior defensive line. Derrick Brown was the most dominant player I’ve watched at Auburn, my favorite team, since Cam Newton.
8. Arizona Cardinals – WR Ceedee Lamb, Oklahoma
The Cardinals need a wide receiver. They had one player have over 800 receiving yards last year and their third leading receiver is now their backup running back. Kyler is real. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year thrived in the desert but he needs more help from his weapons. Offensive line could be an option here too, but I think the idea of drafting a true number 1 receiver will be too tempting. It’ll also be hard to pass on Ceedee when Kyler is tweeting this:
9. Jacksonville Jaguars – OT Tristan Wirfs, Iowa
Whoever is playing QB in Jacksonville, they’re going to need some more protection. Wirfs had one of the best combines from an offensive linemen in years and he’ll be the second tackle off the board.
10. Cleveland Browns – OT Mekhi Becton, Louisville
The run on tackles is official. Baker Mayfield, the face of Cleveland sports right now, struggled last year in large part due to their lack of protection. Becton stands at 6’7″ and weights about 365 pounds. He also ran a 5.1 40 at the combine. He’s got a lot of room to grow, but his potential is too high for the Browns to pass up.
11. New York Jets – OT Andrew Thomas, Georgia
Andrew Thomas has been the forgotten man in this offensive line class. He came into the year as OT1 for most people, but he was simply passed by all three of Wills, Wirfs and Becton for no fault of his own. The Jets, like the Browns and Jaguars before them need to protect their young QB and Thomas is the last of the the elite tackles this class has to offer. Here he is man-handling first round talent K’Lavon Chaisson
12. Las Vegas Raiders – LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma
It seems widely accepted at this point that the Raiders are going to end the first round with a wide receiver and a linebacker. Given the depth of this receiver class, the Raiders will reach a bit for Kenneth Murray to assure they don’t get jumped by another LB-needy team. Murray was the only good player on that Oklahoma defense last year, but he is dominant at the middle linebacker position.
13. Indianapolis Colts – WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
The best wide receiver’s slide in this mock draft ends here. The Colts are the favorite to sign Phillip Rivers and have Jacoby Brissett. The best win-now for them move would be to draft Jeudy and let him go for 1,000 yards next year. He’ll immediately be WR2 for any team he goes to and combining him with T.Y. Hilton would give the Colts a major offensive boost.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Justin Herbert, Oregon
There’s a lot of talk about the Buccaneers going after Tom Brady, but come on. Brady probably isn’t going to Tampa. So, they’ll replace Jameis Winston, future Bear, with Herbert. As you can see below, Herbert’s absolute CANNON of an arm should fit Bruce Arians’ offense very well.
15. Denver Broncos – WR Henry Ruggs III, Alabama
The Broncos are going to be on the clock for maybe 5 seconds if Henry Ruggs is still available at 15. Putting the fastest player in this draft next to Courtland Sutton would do wonders for second year QB Drew Lock. Ruggs is going to outrun a lot of good players in orange and blue.
16. Atlanta Falcons – EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU
There might not be a bigger need in the draft than the Falcons and pass rush. The defensive line was non-existent last year and that’s when they had Vic Beasley, who will not be re-signing. Chaisson has the traits to be a very good pass rusher in a year or two, but it’ll take him some time. The Falcons can afford to be patient.
17. Dallas Cowboys – DL Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina
Javon Kinlaw is going to be a force in the middle of any defense. You’ll see a lot of mack drafts having the Cowboys draft a safety, but I think they’ll be able to get Grant Delpit in the second round. Kinlaw’s pass rush abilities and overall wrecking ball mentality will be difficult to pass on in Dallas.
18. Miami Dolphins – OT Josh Jones, Houston
You got Tua. Now you have to protect Tua. The first tier 2 tackle off the board, Jones has been a steady riser throughout the draft process. His athleticism and dominant flashes are going to give teams enough hope to spend a first round pick on him. The Dolphins will hope he can protect Tua’s blindside for a long time.
19. Oakland Raiders – WR Justin Jefferson, LSU
The Raiders get their wide receiver. Justin Jefferson has solidified himself as WR4 after an excellent combine and can play right away for Jon Gruden. It might take a little bit of time to adjust after playing in a near-perfect system at LSU, but he should be making plays by the end of the year.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB C.J. Henderson, Florida
Realistically, the Jaguars could reach and draft Henderson at number 9 and hope Josh Jones falls to them. But, in this mock, the board fell in their favor. Henderson is the second best CB in this class. He has great technique and does very well in man coverage. Mental lapses and other issues have plagued him in Gainesville, but his form is too good to pass on. He can also hustle:
21. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Tee Higgins, Clemson
Carson Wentz was throwing the ball to guys last year that are going to be playing in the XFL pretty soon. It was a mess. Tee Higgins can come in and provide some support. He’ll be an excellent 50-50 ball guy from day one and the rest will come. He’ll probably be their WR1.
22. Buffalo Bills – WR Denzel Mims, Baylor
The biggest riser following the combine was Baylor’s Denzel Mims. He ran a 4.38 40, blowing away expectations, and reportedly interviewed very well. One of the many teams in the first round desperate for a wide receiver, the Bills are going to draft whichever WR is available here.
23. New England Patriots – QB Jordan Love, Utah State
A note: I don’t think Jordan Love is going to last until the 23rd pick. New England would have to trade up to get him. However, there is no better spot for Love to land than with the Patriots. He can learn behind Tom Brady, who I think comes back, and then have a couple years with Belichick as his coach. Love’s gunslinger tendencies could lead to a nice balance in the Patriots’ dink-and-dunk offense.
24. New Orleans Saints – CB Kristian Fulton, LSU
I’m sure the Saints would love to get a wide receiver here, but there really aren’t any of value at this point. So, they’ll address the corner spot. Marshon Lattimore has had one side of the field locked down for years now and Fulton could step in and try to man the other side. His press is fantastic and he’s strayed away from some of his off the field the struggles.
25. Minnesota Vikings – CB Jeff Gladney, TCU
The Vikings need a cornerback more than any team in the league. With the top 3 corners already off the board, they’ll take Gladney. This is a need fit more than anything. Gladney will have a lot expected of him right away here, as will any other cornerback they take.
26. Miami Dolphins – RB D’Andre Swift, Georgia
You got Tua. You got your left tackle. Now the Dolphins can try to get more explosive. Setting up your QB of the future with the best RB in this class should be an easy decision.
27. Seattle Seahawks – LB Zack Baun, Wisconsin
Zack Baun can cover tight ends, rush off the edge or play off-ball linebacker and stop the run. The Seahawks need a little bit of help at all of those positions, so this should be their guy.
28. Baltimore Ravens – EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State
It’s weird because when you look at the Ravens roster they don’t have many holes. Maybe a wide receiver, but there’s already 6 gone. So, they’ll address the edge rush with the impending trade of Matt Judon. Gross-Matos will be able to just pin his ears back and get to the quarterback in this already stout defense.
29. Tennessee Titans – RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
Don’t pay running backs. It never works out. Because of that, it’s really hard for me to see the Titans resigning Derrick Henry. They’ll just replace him with Jonathan Taylor. He’ll be a home-run hitter as their starting running back right away.
30. Green Bay Packers – WR Brandon Aiyuk, ASU
Meet Aaron Rodgers’ 2nd favorite target. Aiyuk’s explosiveness and YAC ability is going to be a great fit in Matt Lafleur’s offense. They could go tight end here, but I’m guessing that they’ll sign Austin Hooper instead of reaching for one in the draft.
31. San Francisco 49ers – S Xavier McKinney, Alabama
Adding a safety as good as Xavier McKinney to this defense is unfair. He’ll be able to roam the field and just make plays for the best defense in football last year.
32. Kansas City Chiefs – DL A.J. Epenesa, Iowa
The Chiefs are probably going to lose star DT Chris Jones and they’ll need some sort of replacement for that pass rush. Here it is. Epenesa has slid throughout the draft process, but he’s still going to be able to get pressure up the middle. That’s all he’ll be asked to do with the Chiefs.