Record: 16-17

Justin Fields Over 0.5 Interceptions -135

Much like Daniel Jones on Monday night, Justin Fields throwing an interception tonight is inevitable. He’s averaging 1.25 interceptions per game this season and has thrown one in every contest thus far. On top of that, in Fields’ only career matchup against the Commanders, which came last year, he threw an interception. I like to think history repeats itself, especially when the subject of your experiment is Justin Fields. He’ll get picked off at least once tonight, you can guarantee that.

Justin Fields Over 47.5 Rushing Yards -115

Now, it won’t be all bad for Fields. I’m taking his rushing yards over. While he only has one game this season over 47.5 yards, against Washington last season he went for 88 yards on the ground. Again, history repeats itself. In addition, Washington hasn’t been great at containing the quarterback run this season. Russell Wilson went for over 47.5 against them and Josh Allen came close to the number with 46 yards. Fields is a different animal when it comes to running because it seems like that’s what he’s most comfortable doing. Like I said, it’s not all bad for Fields.

Logan Thomas Over 27.5 Receiving Yards

There are a lot of reasons to love this play. The first being that the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to covering the tight end. In three of the teams four games, their opponents starting tight end went for over 27.5 yards — and that’s not just Travis Kelce. That includes Cade Otton and Luke Musgrave. Thomas is the Commanders clear-cut starting tight end who rarely splits reps, and in the two of the three games he’s played, he’s gone for over 27.5 yards.

Sam Howell Over 258.5 Passing and Rushing Yards -115

In the Bears past three games, they’ve allowed all three starting quarterbacks to go for over 258.5 passing and rushing yards. Aside from the immaculate Patrick Mahomes on that list, the two other quarterbacks are Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson. For Sam Howell, he’s gone for over 258.5 passing and rushing yards in two games, but what makes me feel really great about him was that one of those games was against the Eagles who have an awesome defense.

Yannick Ngakoue Over 0.25 Sacks +105

Would this be an Andrew Diaz props article if I didn’t include a sack prop? C’mon now. While Yannick Ngakoue only has 1 sack on the season, I love his matchups tonight. He’ll be going against Charles Leno Jr., who has a PFF grade of 71.1% and Andrew Wylie who has a PFF grade of 60.3% and has also allowed 4 sacks this season. Howell has been sacked 24 times through four games this year, so even when you consider the Bears lackluster pass rush, they should be able to get pressure with Ngakoue leading the way.