Ever since I started gambling, I’ve realized a few things. One of those things is that we are all losers. No matter how hot you get, what model you use, or if you trust your gut, gambling will always make you lose. However, I’ve also gotten a lot smarter. My problem early on was that I thought I knew a lot about sports, so I’d be good at gambling. While I still think I know a lot about sports, the gambling side of me has evolved. Now I’m all about fishy lines, fading the public, checking out models, and sprinkling in only a little bit of actual sports knowledge. One basic rule I follow that was told to me by someone I really don’t remember is this: bet numbers, not teams. In other words, bet the lines that strike you as weird or odd, or fade a number the public loves. I’m here to take you on a weird, wacky journey in the gambling world and GUARANTEE we make it out profitable.
I’ve been posting my picks on Action Network, so follow me there (Luke_Owens), but my articles have been somewhat less frequent due to time, and also I want to make sure I’m doing well enough so people trusting me with their money can make even more. If you check my Action Network link, you’ll see I hit 48-25-2 in college football this year, 35-29-1 in NFL, and am 3-1 since dipping my toes in college basketball. With all that being said, tonight I have TWO games to give to the people.
Creighton (-3) over Arizona State
These two teams enter tonight as polar opposites. Creighton is 6-4, losers of four straight. ASU is 9-1 and has ripped off seven straight wins. So, why is Creighton favored? Two of the four losses the Blue Jays suffered were against Arizona and Texas. They also suffered two brutal losses to Nebraska and BYU. I think Creighton is one of the ten or so best teams in the country, despite their record and current situation. Arizona State is 9-1, but are not battle-tested. Their only real win came against Michigan, who isn’t terribly impressive themselves. They have not faced an offense as explosive as Creighton.
Vegas knows Creighton is the better team on a neutral floor. HOWEVER, the public does not. 55% of public bets lie on the Sun Devils. The public sees a big shiny 9-1 team as the underdogs and bets them. We are getting GREAT value on Creighton, who could win this game by double digits. #FadeThePublic goes strong tonight. We fly with the Jays.
Lafayette (-8) over Columbia
“Always bet lines, not teams.” Columbia is 4-9 on the year. Lafayette is 1-10. YEESH. So, why is the 1-10 team favored by nearly double-digits? Weird line, so smash it. I could not tell you one thing about either teams play style, which makes me love the game even more. The average public bettor looks at this line and says eight points of wiggle room with the “better” team? Sign me up! But let’s take into account two of Columbia’s four wins have come against SUNY Maritime and Sarah Lawrence. No offense to Sarah Lawrence, I’m sure she’s a nice lady, but how in the world is that even a real school?!
Despite the 1-10 record, Lafayette is 8-3 ATS while playing a much tougher schedule. They’ve also played on the road almost every game this season. This is why we bet lines, not teams. A huge 61% of the public is on Columbia +8. They see a 1-10 team as a favorite and can’t believe it. I’m here to tell you, don’t take that Vegas bait. Take Lafayette -8 and cash it in the bank.