Record: 35-60

Bailey Zappe Longest Completion Under 30.5 Yards -110

This is inevitable. Zappe has appeared in five games this season, and in all five games, he hasn’t had a completion over 30.5 yards. It’s not just Zappe, though. Mac Jones has five games where his longest completion was over 30.5 yards, but the last time that happened was on October 22nd. Pittsburgh has held six opposing quarterbacks longest completions to under 30.5 yards. Pittsburgh has one of the league’s top defenses. When you pair that with the anemic Patriots offense that doesn’t like to push the ball downfield, we’re looking at an absolute lock.

George Pickens Longest Reception Over 18.5 Yards -115

A big bone of contention this season when discussing George Pickens has been his effort level. I get that at times it’s lacked, but he does have eight games where his longest reception was over 18.5 yards. Three of them came in the last four games. 23 wide receivers who have played the Patriots this season had their longest reception over 18.5 yards against them. There’s no denying that New Englands front seven has been dominant this season. Their back end, however, has been the lone defensive weak spot.

Hunter Henry Over 2.5 Receptions -105

With both Zappe playing and the fact that the Steelers defense swarms to the ball, I think tonight could be fruitful for Henry. Henry has six games over 2.5 receptions, proving to be a reliable option for the Patriots mediocre quarterbacks. On the year, he’s averaging 4.45 targets per game and 2.9 catches per game. Also, of the 12 starting tight ends that Pittsburgh has faced this year, nine of them went for over 2.5 receptions. The numbers don’t lie. Statistically speaking, tight ends have their way with the Steelers defense. Tonight will be no different.

Deatrich Wise Over 0.25 Sacks +190

I hit my most recent sack prop which means one thing — I’m feeling hot. An easy play would be to bet Watt over 0.75 sacks, but at -195, it makes no sense. Let’s look at the Patriots and take Deatrich Wise over 0.25 sacks at +190. Has Wise been as disruptive as years past? No, but he is coming off a game vs the Giants where he tallied a half sack. With 2.5 total on the year, this might feel foolish, but I love his matchups. Left tackle Dan Moore Jr. has a PFF grade of 51.2% and has allowed 5 sacks this season, while is counterpart opposite of him, Broderick Jones, has allowed 1 sacks this season and has a PFF grade of 63.7%. We’re betting on Wise to come out of his shell tonight and bring the heat towards Mitch Trubisky.