Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl (Tucson, Arizona) Arkansas State (8-4) vs. Nevada (7-5)
How They Got Here: Arkansas State
Aside from Alabama and App. State, Arkansas State’s other losses were both close games. The Red Wolves, led by senior QB Justice Hansen, finished the regular season on a tear. Over the final month of the season, Arkansas State won out by a combined score of 146-54, scoring no less than 30 points a game. Head coach Blake Anderson, a former OC, has had the offense clicking for most of the season, averaging 463.5 yards per game. The offense was only held to less than 10 points only twice this season(App. State, Alabama). The passing offense is the more prolific attack, but the run game is no slouch either, with 181.5 yards per game.
With the 46th ranked total defense, Arkansas State has a lot to prove . Senior nickel corner Justin Clifton is a four year starter, and should be highly motivated in his final game. Nevada’s air-raid style will certainly be a test for Justin Clifton in this game. The two defenses are fairly evenly matched, so a big play from the Arkansas State secondary late in the game could end up being huge for the Red Wolves.
How They Got Here: Nevada
Last Season, First year HC Jay Norvell and OC Matt Mumme (yes, Hal Mumme’s son) were intent on installing an air-raid offense. Under that philosophy, they finished 3-9. This season, they chose to employ a much more balanced system. Obviously, this worked better, seeing as they are in a bowl this year. The tendency of the offense still seems to be pass first, but they will not completely abandon the run either.
QB Ty Gangi is perfect for the offense, with a 61% completion rate. His top receiver, McLane Mannix, has caught seven touchdowns this year, which is nearly a third of Gangi’s TD passes. With four receivers over 300 yards, Arkansas State could have their hands full. RB Toa Taua is no pushover either, with over 1,000 total yards. When people say these two teams are equal, they mean it. The Wolfpack has the 49th ranked total defense, putting them just three spots behind Arkansas State. Senior LB Malik Reed has eight sacks on the year, and could terrorize the Red Wolves’ backfield if left unchecked. The defense has also forced 16 turnovers this year, so don’t be surprised if they steal one off of a gunslinger like Hansen.
Player to Watch: Justice Hansen
A three-year starter, this is the last game in a Red Wolves uniform for Hansen. The guy has been one of, if not the best QBs in Arkansas State history. I fully expect him to go out swinging. The 2018 Sun Belt Player of the Year has one more shot at glory, and don’t be surprised for him to show up on the biggest stage of the season.
Gambling Stats
Both teams are 6-6 against the spread, so not much is going to be telling in that department. The over/under is 56.5, and it would not be all that surprising to see them hit the over. As for the line, it currently sits at Nevada -1.5. That is a risky proposition, so move forward with caution.
Prediction
These two teams are pretty even, both offensively and defensively. Both have amazing quarterbacks who can take over a game. The key to watch is going to be coaching. This will be the first bowl game (as HC) for Wolfpack coach Jay Norvell. On the other side of the field, this will be Blake Anderson’s fifth bowl game. The experience in this situation will likely help shape the outcome of the game. If the two offenses show up, this could quickly turn into a shootout that easily smashes the over. In the end, smart money would be to take the experience of Arkansas State to win in a close matchup.