Houston Cougars (8-4) vs Army Black Knights (10-2)

The Armed Forces Bowl will be played Saturday December 22nd at 3:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN. The game will be played at TCU’s Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. Houston has been to six straight bowls and this will be their second under head coach Major Applewhite. This will be Army’s third straight bowl under Jeff Monken as they come off back-to-back 10 win seasons.

How They Got Here: Houston Cougars

The Cougars’ offense was awesome this year, averaging 45 points per game. They were led by star QB D’Eriq King who had nearly 3000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards… but is out on Saturday with an injury. True freshman Clayton Tune will have to step in to replace King, as he did against Memphis. Nevertheless, Houston will still have their excellent ground game to lean on. Junior Patrick Carr led the way with 143 carries for over 800 yards and 5 TDs. They will also still rely on sophomore receiver Marquez Stevenson, who had 945 yards and 9 TDs on just 67 catches.

Defense has been the bigger issue for Houston, with or without Ed Oliver. Nearly every game for the Cougars ended up turning into a shootout because of how the defense struggled, especially in the passing game. Opposing teams were able to run and throw all over Houston, but the one area they found success was creating turnovers. They averaged 2 takeaways per game on defense and were also great at breaking up passes. Senior LB Austin Robinson led the team with 93 tackles and 6 sacks.

How They Got Here: Army Black Knights

Jeff Monken now has more 10 win seasons than any coach in Army history after two straight years of double digit wins. His teams are not going to blow a lot of teams out, but they’re going to be in a position to win every week. Maybe most importantly for Army, Monken has now won three straight against Navy.

Army’s triple option offense is extremely efficient on the ground and explosive through the air when they actually throw. The offense runs through junior QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr., but senior Darnell Woolfolk leads a large group of backs with 823 yards on 194 carries and 14 TDs. On defense the Black Knights struggle, but facing so few posessions certainly helps to protect them. However, one strength of the defense is that when they get teams into obvious passising situations, they don’t allow them to convert first downs.

Player to Watch: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. (Army)

Hopkins is at the center of the Army offense and will be critical to the entire game. If he can help Army to control the ball and limit Houston’s possessions, the Black Knights will have a great chance. Hopkins threw for 956 yards on just 90 attempts and had 6 touchdowns. He also ran for 852 yards, averaged 4.3 per carry and had 12 more rushing touchdowns.

Betting Lines:

Army is currently favored by 5.5 points and the over/under is set at 60.

Prediction:

Houston would probably still be favored if King was playing, but they might struggle to move the ball without him. Army took Oklahoma to overtime this year and could also find success against Houston in the same way. I would still take Houston to win, but it should be close, especially if Army can control the ball.