UAB Blazers(10-3) vs NIU Huskies(8-5)
The Boca Raton Bowl will kick off at 7 PM EST on December 18th in FAU Stadium and can be found on ESPN. UAB is coming off their first conference title ever and NIU off their fourth MAC title since 2011. This game will be the only bowl outside the New Year’s Six to feature two conference champions.
How They Got Here: UAB Blazers
Bill Clark and UAB were able to win Conference USA in just their second year back from not having a football program at all. The Blazers really broke through this season as they had an average margin of victory of 18.3 in their eight conference wins. UAB’s only losses came early in the season against Coastal Carolina, against Texas A&M and then to MTSU before they won the rematch in the conference championship game.
UAB is led by their extremely efficient defense that is made up of mostly seniors. While they were susceptible to giving up big plays, they made up for it by getting into the backfield as much as anyone in the country. Defensive end Jamell Garcia-Williams and linebacker Tre’ Crawford combined for 17.5 sacks on the year and led the team. Meanwhile, senior linebacker Chris Woolbright contributed 15.5 TFLs and 2 interceptions. On the other side of the ball, the Blazers’ offense is all about sophomore running back Spencer Brown. Leading the team, Brown had over 1100 rushing yards to go along with 16 touchdowns and 4.7 yards per carry.
How They Got Here: NIU Huskies
NIU was able to win their fourth MAC championship of the decade and their first since 2014. However, the Huskies were at least somewhat lucky, as they went 6-2 in one possession games.
Similarly to UAB, Northern Illinois’ stellar defense carries their dreadful offense. The Huskies allowed just 19.3 points per game against their non-P5 competition and were a top 20 unit overall. Defensive ends Sutton Smith and Josh Corcoran both had massive years, combining for 37 TFLs and 25 sacks between the two of them. Antonio Jones-Davis was also extremely influential with 94 tackles and 6 pass breakups at linebacker. On offense NIU struggles to throw the ball, but has more success running. Quarterback Marcus Childers threw 368 times for just under 2000 yards and ran 138 times for nearly 800 yards. Running back Tre Harbison is averaging 5.2 YPC and will almost surely get over the 1000 yard mark against UAB.
Player to Watch: Sutton Smith(NIU)
Sutton Smith is probably the best player on either team in this game. After a breakout sophomore season that featured 14 sacks and 63 total tackles, he followed it up this year with 15 sacks, 56 tackles and 7 combined forced and recovered fumbles. Smith has also deservedly been racking up the accolades after his dominant season this year. So far, he has been named to the All-MAC first team, four different All-America first teams, and won best defensive and overall player in the MAC.
Betting Lines
UAB started at -1, but the line has moved up to -3. The over/under is set at 43 points.
Prediction
The Blazers’ biggest weakness is giving up big plays… but the Huskies are one of the least explosive teams in the country on offense. Both teams struggle to finish drives on offense and are great at tightening up in the red zone on defense. I would take UAB because even though they struggle on offense, they’re certainly better than NIU on that side of the ball. No matter what happens, expect a low scoring affair.