Memphis Tigers (8-5) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6)
The 13th annual Birmingham Bowl (with first-year title sponsor Jared) will take place Saturday at 11 a.m. CT at historic Legion Field in downtown Birmingham, Alabama. Dave Neal, DJ Shockley, and Dawn Davenport will be in the booth for ESPN broadcasting the game. Memphis enters the game coming off a disappointing American Athletic Conference Championship game defeat to UCF 56-41. The loss ended a four-game winning streak that the Tigers snagged at the end of the regular season. On the flip side, Wake Forest comes in seeking their first two-game winning streak since the first two contests of the year. The Demon Deacons reached bowl eligibility with a 59-7 smothering of Duke, their largest margin of victory of an ACC opponent in program history. This will be the fifth meeting between these two squads and the first meeting on the gridiron since 1967.
How Wake Forest Got Here
It’s been a topsy-turvy season for Dave Clawson’s squad. They’ve seen great wins, such as the aforementioned blowout victory over Duke and a road win over then-ranked NC State, as well as some terribly disappointing losses, including a 63-3 pummeling at the hands of Clemson, a 21-point home loss to a Pittsburgh, and a 21-point disappointing loss to a bad Florida State team. Quarterback Sam Hartman went down with a season-ending leg injury a few weeks ago, but back-up Jamie Newman has been more than capable in his stead, throwing for 755 yards, eight touchdowns, and only three interceptions this season. Overall from a statistical standpoint, Wake Forest personifies a “good-not-great” description. The Deacons are 33rd in America in total offense, 66th in passing offense, and 25th in rushing offense, led by junior Cade Carney, who has accumulated 954 yards on the ground this year. On the other side of the ball, it’s been a struggle for the Demon Deacons, who enter 116th in total defense. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel was let go after the Notre Dame loss in September, and Lyle Hemphill look things over. Improvements were seen, but the defense isn’t anywhere near elite. That’ll be a problem against a potent Memphis offense. Still, Wake Forest closed the season strong and battled back after some tough, early results. ““I think the one word that describes our football team is how resilient they are. We didn’t play well against Notre Dame, we didn’t play well against Clemson, and after that we did a lot of soul-searching,” head coach Dave Clawson said in a chat with ESPN analyst Todd Blackledge at the Birmingham Bowl dinner earlier this week. “We had a lot of young players get better and a lot of leadership. With a season like we had, it would’ve bene easy to finish 3-9 or 4-8, but our leaders wouldn’t let that happen.” (For what it’s worth, Blackledge asked Clawson his thoughts on the Sugar Bowl match-up between Clemson and Notre Dame since Wake Forest played both opponents…Clawson said this is easily the best Clemson team he’s faced in his five-year career in Winston-Salem). Clawson’s team will need to be resilient one more time at Legion Field if they want to finish the season above .500.
How Memphis Got Here
Just like Saturday’s opposition, this season has been all over the place for Memphis, albeit with a tad more consistency near the end. After a 4-4 start that included two one-point losses to Navy and UCF (in a game that Memphis led almost the entire way), the Tigers finished the regular season strong with four straight victories by an average margin of 18.8 points. “This is a really young team, and we had some setbacks, but our guys continued to respond to whatever adversity showed,” head coach Mike Norvell said at the Birmingham Bowl dinner earlier this week. “You’re always in control of your own destiny and you’re always in control of your response.” Unfortunately for Norvell’s squad, that last-season surge couldn’t be parlayed into an AAC Championship game victory, as UCF came back from three seventeen-point deficits and outscored the Tigers 35-3 in the second half on the way to a 56-41 win. For the Tigers, success this season has centered around all-world running back Darrell Henderson, who went for 1,909 yards on the ground (8.9 yards per carry) and an amazing 22 touchdowns. Henderson has declared for the NFL Draft and won’t play in the bowl game, but it’s fairly obvious that Memphis wouldn’t be here without his production. Without Henderson, Norvell’s squad will rely more on quarterback Brady White, who had an efficient season with 3,125 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. With White at the helm, it’s easy to see why Memphis is 4th in the country in total offense; he looks poised in the pocket and rarely makes mistakes. Just like for Wake Forest, the defense will be the issue. The Tigers are 84th in Total Defense and have been giving up 31.5 points per game. They’ll have to figure out some way to slow down the Demon Deacons if they want to win.
Gambling Stats
As of this writing, Memphis is currently favored -3.5 with the over/under set at 74. Against the spread, Memphis is 8-5, a mark that mirrors their overall record. On the flip side, Wake Forest is 4-8 this season against the number. For what it’s worth, Wake Forest will be the home team on Saturday. As the home team this year, the Demon Deacons are 1-6 against the spread and 0-5 as the home underdog.
Player to Watch
Greg Dortch, Wide Receiver, Wake Forest
Very few have been as good this year as Wake Forest’s sophomore receiver and return specialist. Greg Dortch. 11th in the country in All-Purpose Yards, Dortch enters with 1,078 receiving yards, 276 punt return yards (with two touchdowns), and 376 kickoff return yards. He’s a dynamic talent that has a lateral quickness that will break your ankles if you’re not careful. Unfortunately, Dortch’s status for the Jared Birmingham Bowl is unknown after suffering a finger injury in the regular season finale against Duke. If he plays, Wake Forest may have the edge. Without Dortch, the road to victory will be a little bit tougher for the Demon Deacons.
Gray’s Pick
With sunshine and semi-warm temperatures anticipated in the Magic City on Saturday, expect the quarterbacks to play well. Playing without Darrell Henderson will make things tougher for Memphis, but I trust Brady White a little bit more under center than Jamie Newman. Memphis’ defense will make a few more stops, White will make a few more throws, and Mike Norvell will continue to make his case for why he deserves a high-level job in the very near future. Memphis 38, Wake Forest 31.
