Wait a second…this isn’t the College Football Playoffs? UCF got robbed again? But I digress. So no major bowl for UCF this year, but still have a chance to win 10+ games for the third straight season. Something they have yet to accomplish. For Marshall, after a slow start, can finish the season winning seven out of their last eight with and close the books on the decade winning 9+ games five out of the last seven seasons.

How They Got Here: UCF

After a quick 3-0 start beating the Lane Train led Owls handily, as well as a very disappointing Stanford team they fell back into the reality that is being a G5 team. Losing to Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and 4-8 Tulsa all on the road. While the expectations for this team were high at the beginning of the season it is hard to call a 10 win season disappointing. With the game being located in Tampa Bay this as close to a home as you can get.

How They Got Here: Marshall

Role reversal with Marshall. After a sluggish 2-3 start that included a 38 point loss at home vs Cincinnati they were able to flip the switch going on a five game winning streak and winning six our of their last seven. I don’t think they are better than UCF, but they are the hotter team currently.

Player To Watch: Brenden Knox, RB, Marshall

The best way for Marshall to beat UCF is controlling time of possession by a wide margin. UCF doesn’t need a lot of time to score–seeing as they are 6th in PPG but 128th in time of possession–so it will be on the shoulders of Brenden Knox. The Thundering Herd running back has rushed for 1200 yards this season, along with 11 touchdowns. He is their best offensive player. So if they can’t get him going early, it might be a long day for Marshall.

Degenerate Section: UCF -15.0 (O/U 60)

I think UCF still wins but I got to give Marshall some respect and say they keep it closer than 15 points. I am also hammering the over on 60 points because UCF can struggle vs the run so I expect a high scoring affair in this game.