Bowl season continues on New Year’s Eve, with a matchup between No.24 Tulsa and Mississippi State at the Armed Forces Bowl. The game is set to be played at Amon G. Carter Stadium, in Fort Worth, Texas.
How They Got Here: Tulsa
This game will be the 3rd bowl appearance in 6 seasons under coach Philip Montgomery for the Golden Hurricane. After finishing near the bottom of the AAC for the last three seasons, Tulsa had a major turnaround this year. They went 6-1 in the regular season, with their only loss coming to then-No.11 Oklahoma State. That earned them a berth in their first-ever AAC Championship game, where they lost 27-24 to No.6 Cincinnati.
The Golden Hurricane are powered by their strong defense. The team allowed just under 21 points per game in the regular season, and specifically excelled against the pass. Tulsa’s secondary allowed just 194 passing yards per game, and forced 6 interceptions. However, the team will have quite a challenge, as they will be forced to play without their best defensive player. Zaven Collins, a junior linebacker, recently announced he will be skipping the game in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. Collins won the 2020 Bronko Nagurski Trophy as the best defensive player in the nation. He had 54 tackles (11.5 for loss), and 4 interceptions.
Tulsa’s offense is predicated on their running game. Corey Taylor II, Deneric Prince, and T.K. Wilkerson have all split carries evenly throughout the year, creating a dynamic attack on the ground. The three backs have combined for 1,210 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. On the other hand, the passing game hasn’t been as dependable. Senior QB Zach Smith completed 55.8% of his passes, and averaged exactly 200 yards per game through the air. He does have some reliable targets, however, in Josh Johnson and Keylon Stokes. Johnson has a team-leading 6 touchdowns (7th in the AAC), while Stokes paces the offense with 527 receiving yards.
How They Got Here: Mississippi State
This will be the 11th consecutive bowl appearance for the Bulldogs, and first under head coach Mike Leach. The team started out on the best possible note, going on the road and defeating the defending champion LSU during Week 1. However, they dropped their next four games, and went on to go 1-7 in the eight games following the LSU victory. Their only other win came by a touchdown against winless Vanderbilt.
The only thing that Mike Leach’s ‘air-raid’ offense was able to raid were the expectations of Bulldogs fans heading into the season. Mississippi State averaged just 20.7 points per game during the season, and were held to under 20 points in 5 of their 10 games. K.J. Costello threw for an astonishing 623 yards in the win over LSU, but his passing yardage decreased in each consecutive game after. He had 6 touchdowns against 10 interceptions on the season, before getting injured in an October loss to Alabama.
Since the injury to Costello, Will Rogers has taken over under center. In that same span, the Mississippi State offense has been trending upwards. The Bulldogs eclipsed 400 yards in 2 of their last 3 games, and put up 336 yards in a 31-24 loss to Georgia. Much of that is due to Rogers, who has averaged over 330 yards per game, with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Bulldogs’ defense has kept them in games, to an extent. They have a strong run defense, led by senior Erroll Thompson. The linebacker leads the team in tackles, and will play in the game despite being a prospect for the NFL Draft. Mississippi State will need to stop Tulsa’s ground attack if they want to take control in this one.
Gambling Picks and Predictions
Tulsa is a 2.5 point favorite, with an over/under of 46. Our odds are provided by our pals over at BUSR. To get in on the action, visit busr.com/studentunionsports.
This is a really intriguing matchup, just one of two bowl games that pits a Power Five team against a Group of Five opponent (Cincinnati vs Georgia is the other). Both teams have struggled offensively, and both have good defenses. Tulsa’s defense has been stout all year long, and their offense, while not particularly explosive, is steady. On the other hand, the Bulldogs have been inconsistent on the offensive end, but they have massive big-play potential at all times.
With the way these defenses have played, I’m going with the under in this one.
Score Prediction: Tulsa 24-20 Mississippi State