The only bowl game outside the New Years Six to feature two ranked teams, the #21 Oklahoma State Cowboys and the #19 Miami Hurricanes are set to square off in Orlando in the newly rebranded Cheez-It Bowl. It’s only the second time these two schools have played each other, the only other time back in 1991 (Miami won 40-3). The schools also share a common coach: before coming to Miami, Hall of Famer Jimmy Johnson was the head coach at Oklahoma State before winning a national championship at Miami. These two teams will be playing for bragging rights and hoping to salvage disappointing seasons
How They Got Here: Oklahoma State
A team that had large expectations going into the 2020 season, the Cowboys were projected to be the biggest threat to Oklahoma in the Big 12. After starting the season 3-0 with their third-string quarterback, the preseason hype seemed to be justified. With a stout defense, the Pokes started the season 4-0 with a win over Iowa State and a postponed game against Baylor, climbing up to #6 in the rankings. Then they played Texas at home and lost 41-34 with 4 turnovers, a kick return touchdown and a roughing the punter to go along. What started as a promising season with conference title expectations then went off the rails, losing 3 of their last 6 games, with two bad losses to #18 Oklahoma (41-13) and TCU (29-22).
The Cowboys will have two players out of the game, both to prepare for the NFL Draft, in running back Chuba Hubbard and cornerback Rodarius Williams. In to take Chuba’s place will be three guys who have had big games in their OSU career. L.D. Brown, who could be playing his final game as a Cowboy, has made big plays all season. Dezmon Jackson, the transfer from Hutchinson CC (Kansas), has had huge numbers in the last three games in replacing Chuba and L.D. with injuries. And Dominic Richardson, a true freshman who ran for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last game against Baylor. The passing attack will need to improve, with potential second or third-round pick Tylan Wallace and senior Dylan Stoner both playing their final games at OSU. Spencer Sanders has had an up-and-down year, with many plays costing his team chances to win.
The defense has been the catalyst for the Cowboys all season, something that has been lacking at Ok State for a long time. They will be missing key starters, with Rodarius Williams opting out and Trace Ford reportedly tearing his ACL in the final game against Baylor. The Pokes have forced 15 fumbles and have 6 interceptions, with a top 3 passing defense in the Big 12. In the most 2020 way possible, a Big 12 team will have to rely on their defense to have a chance to win their bowl game.
How They Got Here: Miami
After a 6-7 season the year before, the Miami Hurricanes rolled into 2020 with low expectations. Projected to finish 6th in the ACC, the Canes wanted to exceed those expectations and possibly compete with Notre Dame and Clemson as the best teams in the ACC. After starting the season unranked, the Hurricanes rattled off three wins against UAB, then #18 Louisville and Florida State, before traveling to Clemson for a Saturday night showdown against the Tigers. Clemson dominated that game 42-17 and avoided the upset. Then the Canes won five straight, three of those by a combined 10 points, before ending the season at home against a top 20 North Carolina team. Miami got blown out, 62-26, in one of the most lopsided games between ranked teams in recent memories. Now, the Hurricanes will have to bounce back from that 36 point loss to salvage a potential 9-2 season.
The offense for Miami has a potent passing attack, led by the Houston transfer D’Eriq King at quarterback and running back Cam’Ron Harris. They’re middle of the pack in the ACC in total offense and rushing offense but fourth in passing offense. The Canes have been somewhat lucky this season, beating Virginia 19-14, NC State 44-41 and Virginia Tech 25-24. They’ve been winning the games that they should be winning, but the one game they wanted to win and the one game they needed to win, they couldn’t be competitive. Miami is 1-2 against teams with 7 or more wins and will be playing another team with 7 wins on their record.
The biggest concern for the Hurricanes is their defense. A top 5 defense in the ACC in points-per-game and passing, but middle of the pack in rushing and total defense, all of the focus will be on that running defense going against the second-best rushing offense in the Big 12. North Carolina had 778 yards of total offense, 554 on the ground, so if Miami can stiffen up in the run game, they can beat the Cowboys. But after giving up over half a thousand yards rushing, it’ll be tough to envision that they won’t give up at least 200+ Tuesday in Orlando.
Betting Picks and Prediction
When the bowl games were announced, Oklahoma State opened as a 3 point favorite. Since then, the line has gone down to -1 for OSU. If Miami can slow down the run game, they can dominate the game. If the Cowboys can slow down D’Eriq King, they can win. But they will have to rely on the offense to produce like they did against Baylor. But this isn’t Baylor, and this offense has been inconsistent all season. With a one-point money line, it’s virtually impossible for Miami to cover. That doesn’t mean they won’t win outright, however. The Hurricanes are 6-4 against the spread, while the Cowboys are 4-6. The over/under is sitting at 61, with the Canes being 3-7 O/U and the Pokes being 5-5 O/U. With how the OSU offense and defense has looked, I don’t believe this game will go over 61. I like Miami to pull off the win in Orlando for their first bowl win since 2016.