Happy bowl season everyone! We kick things off with a battle between App State (8-3) and North Texas (4-5) in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. With the way bowl games are structured this year, teams like the Mean Green that may not usually be in a bowl game now are. With that being said, it is likely they would have won six games had a full season been played.
How they got here: App State
The Mountaineers have become a staple when it comes to bowl season. They are a perfect 5-0 since 2015, winning games under three different head coaches. As for this year, the Mountaineers lost three games, which is unusual for a team that finds itself in the Sun Belt Championship game more often than not. However, two of those losses came to programs having historically great seasons in Coastal Carolina and Louisiana. Marshall, their third loss, was one of the hottest teams in college football early on. Simply put, App State does not often play down to its opponents.
On offense, the Mountaineers feature a dynamic rushing attack. Although they will be without second-leading rusher Daetrich Harrington, App State will have leading rusher Camerun Peoples. At quarterback, veteran Zac Thomas is a steady hand to guide the offense. Although it is an offense predicated on running the ball, Thomas has compiled over 2,000 yards passing to go along with 19 touchdowns on the season. He has struggled with turnovers at times, throwing 11 interceptions in as many games. Defensively, the Mountaineers were the best in the Sun Belt in terms of yards per game, excelling especially against the pass.
How they got here: North Texas
The Mean Green has had an inconsistent season, and a lot of that is due to an absolutely putrid defense. North Texas is allowing 41.3 points per game and 509.4 yards of offense. They have won games by having a great offense, but when the team isn’t scoring, the defense will not bail them out. On offense, they get it done with both the run and the pass, leading Conference USA in total offense and points per game. One rare aspect of the Mean Green offense is a true triple-headed monster in the run game. DeAndre Torrey, Oscar Adaway III, and Tre Siggers all split carries, with Torrey leading the team in rushing yards. However, both Adaway III and Siggers got 15 carries in their last game against UTEP. The ability to cycle in three legit running backs and keep their legs fresh can be a lot for a defense to handle.
The other aspect of the offense, the passing game, gets confusing for North Texas. QBs Austin Aune and Jason Bean have split time this year, with no clear starter established. While Aune is more of a traditional pocket passer, Bean gives the chance to change the game on the ground as well. Neither really jumps off the page, with Bean completing 53.2% of his passes while Aune sits at 54.6%. If the choice is to ride the hot hand, expect to see Aune get good playing time after throwing five touchdowns in their last contest. What could be a deciding factor in this game is the absence of leading receiver Jaelon Darden, who opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft.
Gambling picks and predictions
App State is currently a 21.5 point favorite, with the over/under set at 67. Our odds are provided by our friends at BUSR. If you want to get in on the action and place a bet today, head over to Busr.com/studentunionsports.
This is a tough matchup to bet. The question is, can App State limit the offense of North Texas? I lean yes, especially with Darden out. Both teams have been bad ATS, with App State posting a 2-9 record this year. North Texas is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games. The Mean Green defense is just too bad to contain App State’s rushing attack. And, because of that run game and good defense for the Mountaineers, I lean with the under. As everyone knows, bowl games can get crazy and go against everything you think to be true. However, I’ll take App State to cover and the under to kick things off in 2020.