The Portland Trailblazers have taken care of the Memphis Grizzlies in the first ever “Play-In” game, meaning that the 2020 NBA Playoff field is officially set. More than ever before, these playoffs will be all about matchups and will have a serious game-by-game intrigue. Anticipation is at an all-time high due to the high level of play we saw in the seeding games.
To get ready for everything coming our way, here is my official Playoff Primer. I will highlight a player to watch in each series, as well as the storyline that will likely accompany the series, then pick my winner after offering some explanation as to why. We’ve all waited long enough for sports content this year, so let’s just jump right into it.
THE EAST
Milwaukee (1) vs. Orlando (8)
Player to Watch: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Storyline to Watch: The Bucks quest for a title begins.
Analysis: Look, I’m not gonna waste much time on this one. I’ve grown up as a Magic fan and I can easily admit that they don’t stand much of a chance in this one. Their best Giannis-stopper in Jonathan Isaac is done for the year. They don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bucks’ shooters. This will probably be the least intriguing series and matchup throughout the entire playoffs, and that’s why I scapegoated Giannis as the obvious player to watch.
The Pick: Bucks in 4
Toronto (2) vs Brooklyn (7)
Player to watch: Pascal Siakam
Storyline to watch: Is a title defense feasible?
Analysis: This one would be right in the same territory as Milwaukee-Orlando if not for how fascinating the Nets have become in the past week. Caris Levert has always been a bucket, but now he’s getting a real opportunity to show it. He has a fun group of guys around him that will play hard until the last whistle.
Nonetheless, I think the Nets will be lucky to get a game off of the defending champs. The Raptors look dialed in, and their suffocating style of play should overwhelm a team that lacks a true superstar like Brooklyn. It’s going to be interesting to watch Pascal Siakam in this series because he has been the one Raptor who has been slightly out of sync since the Bubble began. Him getting his confidence all the way back in this first series will be very important for the Raptors in later rounds.
The Pick: Raptors in 5
Boston (3) vs Philly (6)
Player to watch: Joel Embiid
Storyline to watch: Classic Rivalry Reborn
Analysis: On to the good stuff. A lot of people back in October would’ve expected this matchup in the Conference Finals. It’s a treat that we’ll get it in the first round. The Sixers won’t be at full strength, as Ben Simmons will not be available for Philly. This also creates a defensive problem for Philly as Simmons is one of their best defenders against wings, and Boston offers no shortage of great players at that spot. Between Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward, the Celtics have plenty of guys that will create matchup nightmares for the Sixers. Factor in Kemba Walker at point and you might think that Boston will run away with this.
The one advantage that Philly will have is Joel Embiid. The Celtics key to shutting him down last year was Al Horford, who is now Embiid’s backup in Philly. Defending centers has been a huge issue for Boston and now they face arguably the most talented one in the whole league. Embiid dominating is the Sixers’ best (and only?) shot at winning this series.
The Pick: Boston in 6
Indiana (4) vs Miami (5)
Player to watch: Victor Oladipo
Storyline to watch: TJ Warren vs. Jimmy Butler: Playoff Edition
Analysis: Talk about a juicy storyline. TJ Warren has been a revelation in the bubble, becoming Indiana’s go-to bucket-getter and making the All-Bubble 1st team. Jimmy Butler is known for getting after it with players across the league, one of whom being Warren. These two got into an all-out brawl in the regular season, and then Miami notably shut down the TJ Train in the bubble with a blowout win.
My personal X-Factor for this series, however, is Victor Oladipo. Before TJ mania started, most people would have said that Oladipo was the Pacers’ biggest offensive weapon. He was originally going to opt-out of playing in the restart due to a healing injury, then opted back in after a few good practices. He didn’t have a signature game during the seeding games, and I think Indiana will really need him to get past a tough Miami team. This should be one of the closest first round matchups.
The Pick: Heat in 7
Milwaukee (1) vs Miami (5)
Player to watch: Khris Middleton
Storyline to watch: Shooters paradise.
Analysis: A hypothetical Milwaukee-Miami matchup would be very entertaining for fans as both rotations are filled with shooters. Milwaukee surrounds Giannis with a cast of snipers that’s led by Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez while Miami backs up Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo with some of the game’s most accurate in Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson.
When you play the matchup game, it’s hard to see Miami being able to get past the Bucks over a 7 game span. If you throw the kitchen sink at Giannis, and Khris steps up, this team is near unbeatable. Ultimately, Milwaukee’s supporting cast is a little better than Miami’s and their star power significantly outweighs what the Heat can put on the floor.
The Pick: Bucks in 5
Toronto (2) vs Boston (3)
Player to watch: Jayson Tatum
Storyline to watch: Who emerges as the budding star?
Analysis: I feel that if we do get this matchup in the second round, it will be the best one that we see in the East. This will be a tough-nosed, hard fought series between two very good teams. Toronto wants to prove that last season wasn’t just Kawhi and the boys while Boston wants to get back to the Conference Finals to prove that pushing LeBron and the Cavs to 7 in 2018 was no joke either.
I think this series comes down to which star can shine the brightest in the bubble. If Jayson Tatum wants to cement himself as one of the league’s true stars, this is the series to do so. Again, Boston will have to be tough up front against Siakam and Marc Gasol, but I believe they will win what should be a slugfest.
The Pick: Celtics in 7
Milwaukee (1) vs Boston (3)
Player to watch: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Storyline to watch: A Legacy to Cement
Analysis: Welcome to the conference finals. There will be a ton of bright young players on both sides. Jaylen Brown will offer the toughest task yet for Giannis. Brook Lopez will be yet another tall order for the Celtics’ bigs, but the Bucks’ tremendous defense will also be tested greatly against Boston’s offensive firepower. Can Giannis, Wes Matthews, Middleton and Eric Bledsoe keep Kemba, Tatum, Brown and Hayward in check over the course of the series. That question will be huge in determining who comes out of the East.
With that said, this series is all about Giannis. Getting to the finals is the big thing missing from his resume among the all-time greats right now. He is one of my favorite players in the entire league, but I will admit that I have been troubled watching him finish games in the seeding games. He’s still not automatic from the line, and there were a few games (Houston, in particular) where his decision-making down the stretch was questionable. That can’t happen when the stakes are higher.
The Pick: Celtics in 7
THE WEST
Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs Portland (8)
Player to watch: Damian Lillard
Storyline to watch: Is the clock ticking on Dame Time?
Analysis: One of the most exciting 1-8 matchups in recent memory. The media will be eating this up, as the Lakers limped into the playoffs while Portland is scorching. Meanwhile, Dame Lillard continues to set Twitter on fire with late game heroics and deep threes. It’s a lot of fun to get caught up in the possibility of Portland pulling this mega-upset off. They’re probably not really an 8 seed if Jusif Nurkic and Zack Collins are available all year. Dame and CJ can get hot at a moment’s notice, and the Lakers aren’t at full strength.
But let’s not kid ourselves. For all of the things Portland does well, they are not a stellar defensive team. The wins over Brooklyn, Dallas and Memphis were exciting, but none of those teams can guard like LA can. Most of all, LeBron James is back in the playoffs. This dude hasn’t made it to The Playoffs, and not made it to the Finals since 2010. If this year is the year that streak ends, do we really think Bron is gonna roll over in round 1? I sure don’t.
The Pick: Lakers in 5
Los Angeles Clippers (2) vs Dallas (7)
Player to watch: Luka Doncic
Storyline to watch: Will This Series Break a Scoring Record?
Analysis: While I don’t anticipate the final result to be particularly close, the games we do get should be great. Dallas has a historically great offense, and Luka Doncic is my pick to be the face of the NBA for the 2020s. I am quite confident that he will put up the best individual numbers in this series, but I’m also quite confident it isn’t going to matter much. Dallas is great on offense, but so are the Clippers. LA is much better defensively, and I don’t see anyone on the Mavs being able to stop either Kawhi Leonard or Paul George. The Clips will also welcome back Montrezl Harrell for this series. While Dallas should keep every game entertaining, the Clippers are much more likely to finish these games off.
The Pick: Clippers in 5
Denver (3) vs Utah (6)
Player to watch: Michael Porter Jr.
Storyline to watch: Which of these two teams is more legit?
Analysis: Here’s the best first round matchup on either side of the bracket. Almost a year ago, I listed the Jazz as my favorite dark horse finals team in a pre-season power ranking. The loss of Bojan Bogdanovic certainly hurts those chances, but Utah is still a team to be taken very seriously. In the other corner, we have a Denver team that I absolutely love. These guys were a game away from the Conference Finals and a shot at Golden State last year, and now they’ve added a potential superstar in Michael Porter Jr.
There’s going to be a lot of fun matchups to watch in this one, with Rudy Gobert trying to shut down the most unique player in the league in Nikola Jokic. Mike Conley could be a big difference maker depending on when he returns after leaving the bubble for birth of his son. Ultimately, I think this will be determined by whoever outperforms their expected role between Donovan Mitchell and MPJ.
The Pick: Nuggets in 7
Houston (4) vs Oklahoma City (5)
Player to watch: Russell Westbrook
Storyline to watch: Russ vs CP3
Analysis: Here’s the best matchup for the first round if we are talking about storylines. Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul essentially traded spots this season and now the two will get to match up in the first round. This is more amazing when you consider that literally no one expected the Thunder to be here. In what was supposed to be a rebuild year, CP3 inspired a young Thunder team and, along with budding star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, carried OKC to one of the best records in the league.
Houston is known for playing a small-ball style that lives and dies by the three, and that will likely create some problems for OKC big Steven Adams. While the Thunder have been a revelation all year, this Houston team is going to be very tough to stop with both Westbrook and James Harden looking to improve their legacies.
The Pick: Rockets in 6
Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs Houston (4)
Player to watch: Anthony Davis
Storyline to watch: The stars are out to play.
Analysis: A Rockets-Lakers series would offer some of the best star power in any series and features probably two of the league’s three best duos. While I think this would be a very entertaining series to watch, I’m not sure it would be very close due to the matchup issues that the Rockets would face.
Their style of small ball is effective when they can render opposing teams’ big men useless on the defensive end, but Anthony Davis is no ordinary big man. He can run like a guard and is such a versatile defender that I don’t think the Lakers would struggle keeping him on the floor. Switch ends of the floor, and I don’t think Houston has anybody that can do a good job on AD while also keeping LeBron in check.
The Pick: Lakers in 5
Los Angeles Clippers (2) vs Denver (3)
Player to watch: Kawhi Leonard
Storyline to watch: Can Denver finally break through to the Conference Finals?
Analysis: I’m really tempted to think that Denver could pull this off if they get a superhuman performance from Nikola Jokic, but I’m not even sure that would be enough. The intrigue of a possible Lakers-Clippers WCF has been talked about since Kawhi and PG signed with the Clippers, and it feels like a serious possibility.
Denver would need stellar defensive performances from their wing players to contain the Clippers’ superstars, and the Clippers have a deep rotation of role players that can hound Denver’s best players. Harrell and Ivica Zubac will rotate expending all of their energy on Jokic, while Pat Beverly tries to lock up Jamal Murray, leaving Michael Porter to Kawhi and Paul George, who are both almost as good, if not as good, on the defensive end as they are on the offensive side. I think it will be very tough for Denver to win a series of neutral court games against the Clips.
The Pick: Clippers in 6
Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs Los Angeles Clippers (2)
Player to watch: Paul George
Storyline to watch: LeBron’s Legacy versus Kawhi’s
Analysis: Let’s all be honest, this is the series everyone wants to see. It will have more hype surrounding it than The Finals will if it happens. We have heard nothing but talk about this possible series since the rosters rounded into shape, and the delay from the pandemic has only added anticipation. The Lakers and the Clippers being two of the best teams in the league is so good for the NBA and basketball. Seeing generational stars go up against each other in the bubble with stakes this high will blow ratings through the roof. This is an incredibly tough matchup to break down and try and predict because it really could go so many ways.
LeBron and Kawhi are probably the two best playoff performers of the past decade. Meanwhile, their co-stars (Davis and George) are both regarded as some of the best in the league who haven’t won much. The Clippers probably have the deeper cast, but both teams are great defensively as a whole. Nonetheless, this series will really be all about the stars. I listed PG as my player to watch because I think he determines this series. Whichever version of Paul George shows up more often, will make or break which LA team heads to The Finals
The Pick: Clippers in 7
THE FINALS
Los Angeles Clippers (2) vs Boston (3)
Player to watch: Kawhi Leonard
Storyline to watch: The birth of a new Boston-LA rivalry?
Analysis: I have no idea what to expect as far as entertainment levels go if we end up with a Celtics-Clippers finals. For starters, I can’t explain enough how much of a bloodbath I think Boston-Milwaukee will have been in the ECF, and I wonder if the Celtics will have the mental toughness to come back from that upset to take on the Clippers.
The Clippers will likely also be drained after the Lakers series, but Kawhi is a different beast in these situations, and we’ve come to expect that. That man is built differently when the lights get brightest and I feel he is the ultimate difference maker in such a unique playoff setting. I’m very high on the future of the Celtics, and I think Tatum-Brown will soon be one of the league’s most potent duos. For now, though, they seem more like a younger version of Kawhi-PG.
The Pick: Clippers in 6