Bowl season continues on Christmas Eve, with a matchup between Hawai’i (4-4) and Houston (3-4) in the New Mexico Bowl. In a somewhat ironic twist, this year’s New Mexico Bowl kicks off in Frisco, Texas due to New Mexico’s stricter COVID-19 restrictions.
How They Got Here: Hawai’i
This is the first appearance for Hawai’i in a bowl game other than the Hawai’i Bowl since 2008, when they faced Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The Rainbow Warriors never got into a rhythm under first-year head coach Todd Graham, failing to win consecutive games at any point in the regular season. However, they did end the year on a strong note, beating UNLV 38-21 on December 12. This will be the fourth bowl appearance in the last five seasons for Hawai’i, who are 7-6 in bowls all-time.
In his first full season as the starter, dual-threat quarterback Chevan Cordeiro threw for 1,947 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also led the team in rushing, with 450 yards and 7 scores on the ground. The last Hawai’i QB to lead the team in rushing was Michael Turner in 1991. Calvin Turner compiled 740 total yards of offense (458 receiving, 271 rushing), and 9 total touchdowns. Turner is a dynamic threat, and is the team’s leading receiver by a wide margin. Miles Reed has also added 363 yards of offense on the ground.
The success of the offense depends largely on the success of Cordeiro. Hawai’i has averaged 33.8 points in their four wins, but just 18.3 in their four losses. Additionally, Cordeiro averages 284.3 passing yards in wins, compared to 202.5 yards in losses.
Defensively, the Rainbow Warriors gave up 30 or more points in five of their eight regular season games. The defense especially struggled against the run, allowing an average of 230.9 rushing yards per game. However, they defend the pass well, which was the key in their biggest win of the year, a 24-21 upset over then-unbeaten Nevada. In the victory, the defense held Carson Strong (who averaged over 320 yards per game) to just 168 passing yards.
How They Got Here: Houston
Houston’s best advantage is based on geography, travelling from Houston to Frisco’s Toyota Stadium. The Cougars will be appearing in their first bowl game under head coach Dana Holgorsen, who is in his second season with the program. It will be the 7th bowl game in the past 8 years for Houston in total.
COVID-19 concerns played a major factor into the scheduling for the Cougars, forcing the team to reschedule or cancel multiple games this season. Heading into this match-up, the team has played just one game since November 15th. In a sense, that has the program feeling grateful just to be playing again this season.
“I think we’re just excited about having another opportunity to be able to play another game,” Holgorsen said to reporters. “You get so many games canceled… the last thing I thought would happen would be bowl games.”
Houston also had an inconsistent season, failing to string any wins together during the year. The team was 3-3 in the American Athletic Conference, with their only non-conference game being a 43-26 loss to then-#14 BYU. Junior QB Clayton Tune threw for 1,832 yards and 13 touchdowns, in his first full season under center. Like Cordeiro, he’s also a bit of a dual threat, with 269 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. Kyle Porter leads the team in terms of rushing, with 394 yards and 4 scores.
Tune has an array of threats in the passing game, with five different receivers over 200 yards on the year. Marquez Stevenson leads the team with 4 receiving scores, and Keith Corbin has recorded a team-best 352 yards.
Defensively, Houston’s pass rush will be the major key in this game. The Cougars are top 20 in the FBS in total sacks, while Hawai’i has allowed Cordeiro to be taken down 26 times this year. However, Payton Turner (the team leader in sacks) has opted out of the game to prep for the NFL Draft, making things a bit more challenging for Houston.
The pass rush is a strong suit of an otherwise weak defense, which allowed over 33 points per game during the regular season.
Gambling Picks and Predictions
Houston is a 13-point favorite according to the odds set by our friends at BUSR, with the total set at 59.5. To get in on the action for college football and much more, head to busr.com/studentunionsports.
This is just the second matchup all-time between the two teams and is a tricky one to bet. With the shortcomings of both defenses, it seems that this game could potentially see a lot of points on the board. In that case, I’d take the over.