Some team will make headlines and draft Tua Tagovailoa on April 23. Whichever organization takes him in will have done tremendous research on his ability to bounce back from the dislocated hip he suffered last November, and will have a plan ready for him.
But the real question is: which team is willing to take the chance and what will that plan be? Tagovailoa said on Tuesday that he expects to be cleared on March 9 and will hold his own Pro Day on April 9, since teams won’t see him at the NFL Combine.
It’s safe to assume that a healthy Tagovailoa would unquestionably be a top-two pick in the draft, either in front of or behind LSU’s Joe Burrow, but because of the injury, he’s probably going to slip to the fourth or fifth pick, meaning that whoever takes the risk of picking him will possibly reap the benefits of a franchise quarterback
The Past
At Alabama, this guy threw nearly eight touchdowns for every interception. In 2018, he threw for nearly 4,000 yards, and was on pace for over 4,700 yards in his injury-shortened 2019.
That’s the resume other players in this draft wish they had — and one that would love if Tagovailoa was healthy. But I think it’s time everybody stops allowing the injury history to be his story. It has to be a side-note, but this guy is special, and I think the right team would turn him into an elite quarterback.
The Present
It’s important to recognize the rarity of players like Tua Tagovailoa. Explosive, he puts points on the board quickly, but has never been reliant on his mobility. His freshman and sophomore seasons, he rushed for 133 and 190 yards, respectively, but in 2019, he totaled 17 rushing yards in nine games — and this evolution is significant heading into the NFL.
If he can continue to be a pass-first quarterback, his game will fit perfectly with where the NFL is going. His game resembles that of Patrick Mahomes, who just won a Super Bowl in his third season.
The Future
But he can only hope to be as fortunate as Mahomes draft night. Mahomes’ greatness overshadows the idea that he sat out a year — just like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady did. All three quarterbacks immediately entered organizations with strong ownership, coaching and quarterback play, meaning that they had time to sit and learn to be a NFL quarterback.
That’s exactly what Tagovailoa needs. Whoever drafts him needs to have an established quarterback and work under the impression that the first one or two seasons of his career will be a time of recovery and learning.
If a team allows him to recover, there’s no reason he can’t have a long career of deep postseason runs.