Can you believe it? The long, long months are over. Opening Day is almost here.
Before the season begins, I decided to look around the American League and see where each team stands entering 2021. For the projected standings, I used the PECOTA system, which predicts the W-L record for each team. So, basically, don’t yell at me if you don’t like your team’s projected record.
I’ve also selected an MVP for each team, as well as a player to watch. ‘Player to Watch’ can be a guy who is set to break out this year, a player who is simply fun or interesting to watch, and anything in between.
Let’s dive in, starting with the AL East:
AL East
#1 New York Yankees (100-62)
Team MVP: Aaron Judge
Player to Watch: Jameson Taillon
The Yankees enter the season projected to finish with the best record in the AL. Although heath has become a question mark for the team in recent seasons (they’re already missing Zack Britton and Luke Voit to start the year), they still boast likely the best lineup in the league. Gleyber Torres looks to have a bounce-back season after an extremely strong spring, and Aaron Judge should contend for MVP if he puts together a full year. D.J. LeMahieu has finished in the top 5 in AL MVP voting in each of the last two seasons, as well.
Gerrit Cole, one of baseball’s true aces, anchors a rotation that has possibly more upside than any other. However, that same rotation also has quite a bit of downside if things don’t go as planned. Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon both have great stuff (Kluber is a 2x Cy Young winner), but there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding a duo that has thrown just 74 innings since 2019 (and combined for just 1 inning last season). Taillon’s reworked arm action is very intriguing, and he saw results this spring. I’m high on him heading into the season.
#2 Tampa Bay Rays (87-75)
Team MVP: Brandon Lowe
Player to Watch: Michael Wacha
The defending AL champions lost a few major pieces from last year’s team, specifically in their rotation. After trading Blake Snell to the Padres, and watching Charlie Morton leave for Atlanta, Tampa will need some other arms to step up. Tyler Glasnow is poised to be the team’s ace, and the team spent some cash in free agency to bring in other starters. Rich Hill, Chris Archer, and Michael Wacha were all signed this past offseason. With the Rays’ track record, don’t be surprised if all three have great seasons. Out of the three, one to watch in particular is Wacha, who dominated in Spring Training.
Offensively, the team features a very balanced lineup. Randy Arozarena will look to carry over success from his unbelievable 2020 postseason, and Brandon Lowe could realistically contend for the AL MVP if everything goes right for him. The Rays should still be a playoff team in 2021.
#3 Toronto Blue Jays (85-77)
Team MVP: George Springer
Player to Watch: Nate Pearson
Earlier, I said the Yankees have the best lineup in the AL, but Toronto’s lineup has arguably the most upside. They’re still extremely young, with 5 of their 9 projected starters age 26 or younger. The signing of George Springer was huge for them, as was the addition of Marcus Semien. These two veteran presences will be huge factors not just in the lineup, but also in a young clubhouse. Young guns like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are projected to have big years, and good seasons from hitters like Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could take this lineup over the top.
On the pitching side, things are less optimistic. Hyun-Jin Ryu is a true ace, but the rest of the team’s rotation is quite rough. Steven Matz is coming off an extremely bad year (just look at his Savant profile), and having him penciled in as the #3 starter doesn’t inspire confidence, exactly. The team will be without closer Kirby Yates all year (Tommy John), and starters Nate Pearson and Robbie Ray are both sidelined with injuries to start the year. The Jays can score with anyone, but they will also likely give up runs more than most.
#4 Boston Red Sox (80-82)
Team MVP: Xander Bogaerts
Player to Watch: Bobby Dalbec
The Sox are coming off a dreadful 60-game campaign last season, one that saw them finish behind the Orioles in the AL East. Their pitching was decimated by injuries, losing Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez among others. That pitching staff is poised to be much better this year, however. Rodriguez is back with the team, and Sale will return at some point. Martin Perez and Nathan Eovaldi quietly had solid years in 2020, and the addition of Garrett Richards will be a big help as well. The bullpen, however, is probably going to continue to be a big issue in Boston.
Offensively, this is still a very strong team. J.D. Martinez looks to have a bounce-back year after the league reinstated video replay for players, and hitters like Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers can be counted on in the middle of the order. Watch for the rookie Bobby Dalbec to break out as well, as he will get a chance to flash his power for an entire season this year.
#5 Baltimore Orioles (68-94)
Team MVP: Trey Mancini
Player to Watch: Chris Davis
Not a ton to say here, honestly. This is a rebuilding team, and they aren’t expecting to compete by any means. That’s probably a good expectation, because they won’t compete. Trey Mancini is an incredible success story, and will be back on the field this year after beating cancer. He’ll be the team’s best hitter, but there are some other guys to look out for as well. Ryan Mountcastle (the team’s #5 prospect) was very impressive in his 2020 stint, and will get a whole year to show what he can do. Anthony Santander has quietly been a very impressive hitter lately, with an OPS+ of 111 since 2019. We can also expect to see the team’s #1 prospect, Adley Rutschman, in the majors at some point this year.
Chris Davis is my player to watch here, despite the fact that he’ll begin the season on the 60-day DL. Maybe it’s just the masochist in me, but Davis’ ABs are must-watch baseball in my mind. Not because I enjoy watching him struggle, but because I want to see if he can eventually turn it around. So, maybe it isn’t the masochist in me, after all.
On the pitching side, Matt Harvey is going to be the team’s #2 starter to open the year. Yes, that Matt Harvey. The pitching staff will not be good, to be blunt about it. John Means and Dean Kremer will be two pitchers to watch this year, particularly Kremer, who is the team’s #8 prospect. Overall, this will be another year of cellar-dwelling for Baltimore.
AL Central
#1 Minnesota Twins (92-70)
Team MVP: Miguel Sano
Player to Watch: Jorge Alcala
Heading into the season, the Twins are considered the favorites in what should be a tight race in the Central. Minnesota boasts a powerful lineup, and Fangraphs projects the team to have 4 players with 30+ home runs (Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler). They also project Josh Donaldson to finish with 29 bombs. Even though Alex Kirilloff did not make the Opening Day roster, he should be up at some point this year, and there’s a very real chance he’ll be a factor for this team. The addition of Andrelton Simmons also fortifies their defense up the middle, and adds depth (with Luis Arraez shifting to a utility role).
They have an underrated pitching staff, as well. Kenta Maeda finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young race last season. Jose Berrios is a very good #2 option, and the team also added depth with the additions of J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker during the offseason. For the bullpen, Minnesota swiped Alex Colomé from the White Sox, and he’s expected to be a high-leverage arm late in games, along with Taylor Rogers. The foursome of Tyler Duffey, Cody Stashak, Caleb Thielbar, and Jorge Alcala combined for a 2.39 ERA last season, as well. I’m especially high on Alcala, who flashed some brilliant stuff last year.
#2 Cleveland Indians (86-76)
Team MVP: Shane Bieber
Player to Watch: Josh Naylor
The Indians finishing second would be a bit of a surprise, but it’s not unthinkable. They truly seem to have a way of getting the most out of their pitchers, so don’t be surprised to see someone like Aaron Civale break out this year. Shane Bieber is coming off an incredible 2020, which netted him the AL Cy Young. Although Zach Plesac started just eight games, he posted a 201 ERA+ in that span. In relief, arms like James Karinchak and Nick Wittgren will anchor the ‘pen. Watch for the team’s #2 prospect, Triston McKenzie, to break out this year as well.
Offensively is where this team has a majority of its flaws. Eddie Rosario was a nice addition to the team, but it’s hard to offset the loss of superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. Andres Gimenez, part of the Lindor trade, is expected to take over the position. Jose Ramirez will continue to be a perennial MVP candidate, and the driving force in the lineup. The team will need big seasons from hitters like Franmil Reyes and Josh Naylor in order to reach the 86 wins they’re projected for.
#3 Chicago White Sox (80-82)
Team MVP: Tim Anderson
Player to Watch: Garrett Crochet
I know, I know. I’m surprised by this projection too. The loss of Eloy Jimenez certainly hurts the team in the immediate future, but it isn’t necessarily a death sentence. This is still a very strong team offensively. Jose Abreu is coming off an MVP season, and is surrounded by some very strong hitters. Tim Anderson has hit .331 with a 132 OPS+ since the start of 2019, and Luis Robert is poised to take a step forward this year. Yasmani Grandal is one of the best catchers in the game, and fellow switch-hitter Yoan Moncada can be very dangerous if he figures it out.
On the other side, Lucas Giolito is an ace, and the #1 arm in the staff. An offseason trade for Lance Lynn gives this team a top 3 that can compete with any in the AL (Giolito-Keuchel-Lynn). The signing of Liam Hendriks bolsters an already-strong bullpen, as well. Young arms like flamethrower Garrett Crochet, Codi Heuer, and Michael Kopech will also be big contributors to this team. The projections are somehow very low on the ChiSox, but they should be right in the mix for the AL Central crown this year.
#4 Kansas City Royals (72-90)
Team MVP: Salvador Perez
Player to Watch: Brady Singer
You have to give the Royals some credit here. They haven’t made the playoffs since their 2015 World Series win, and won less than 60 games in both 2018 and ’19. However, that didn’t stop GM Dayton Moore from going for it. This past offseason, the team traded for Andrew Benintendi, and signed Carlos Santana, Mike Minor, and Wade Davis. These upgrades aren’t going to make them a contender, but they do have a very intriguing mix of players.
Benintendi and Santana join a lineup that is quietly very solid. Whit Merrifield has an OPS+ of 115 since 2018, and has played in 380 of 384 games in that span. Catcher Salvador Perez just signed a massive extension, coming off a year where he slashed .333/.353/.633 in 37 games. The powerful Jorge Soler is also projected to hit 30+ home runs this season. Mike Minor will be a valuable presence, both on the field and as a mentor to young arms like Brady Singer and Brad Keller. The Royals probably won’t compete, but you have to appreciate the fact that they’re at least attempting to (which is a lot more than I can say about some other teams).
#5 Detroit Tigers (66-96)
Team MVP: Willi Castro
Player to Watch: Akil Baddoo
Speaking of teams that aren’t necessarily attempting to compete, here are the Tigers. Okay, maybe I’m exaggerating, but this Tigers team is not going to be good. Their “big” offseason acquisitions were Nomar Mazara and Wilson Ramos. The lineup is young, and another rebuilding year allows the team to get extended looks at players like Willi Castro and Victor Reyes. Another guy to potentially watch is Rule 5 pick Akil Baddoo, who had an insane spring. Jeimer Candelario broke out last year, with an .872 OPS across 52 games. Future HOFer Miguel Cabrera is still projected to be a middle-of-the-order bat, and his tutelage will be very valuable for the team’s young hitters.
Detroit’s starting rotation actually has a chance to be relatively solid. They need a bounce-back year from Matthew Boyd, but getting a full year of prospects like Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal is reason for Tigers fans to be excited. José Ureña (Ronald Acuna Jr.’s mortal enemy) also arrived in Detroit via trade this year, and looks to turn around his career in the Motor City. This is another rebuilding year for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2014. However, they do have some exciting young players to look forward to.
AL West
#1 Houston Astros (92-70)
Team MVP: Carlos Correa
Player to Watch: Kyle Tucker
When it comes to the Astros, you either love them or you hate them. Okay, you probably hate them. But that doesn’t change the fact that this is still a good team heading into 2021. They lost George Springer to Toronto, but most of the core of this lineup is still together. With Carlos Correa entering his contract year, look for him to especially shine within the lineup. There’s a lot of young talent on the team as well, with the powerful Yordan Alvarez and outfielder Kyle Tucker. Tucker is my player to watch, after posting a 123 OPS+ in 58 games last season.
The pitching staff is led by the enigmatic Zack Greinke, but a few injuries have raised some questions the rest of the way. Framber Valdez broke his finger during Spring Training, and there currently is no timeline for his return. Overall, it’s a very young staff, with 7 of the 13 projected pitchers on the team (per Fangraphs) 25 years old or younger. The offense will be good enough to keep the Astros successful, but the pitching staff will be the deciding factor when it comes to Houston being a contender this year.
#2 Los Angeles Angels (87-75)
Team MVP: Mike Trout
Player to Watch: Shohei Ohtani
These were, by far, the easiest team MVP and P.T.W. to pick. Mike Trout is still the best player in baseball entering this season. Trout finished 5th in MVP voting last year, and that was the lowest he’s finished over a full season in his entire career. Crazy, right?
As for Shohei Ohtani, well, he’s Shohei Ohtani. If he can stay healthy this year, he could realistically hit 25+ home runs while also pitching to an ERA around 3.75 or lower. He provides insane value when he can play both sides of the field.
Anthony Rendon is a big supplement to Trout in the lineup, but the team can also get some unexpected firepower elsewhere. Jared Walsh slashed .293/.324/.646 (153 OPS+) in 32 games last year. That’s a small sample size, of course, but there’s reason to believe that it was at least somewhat legit. Compared to his 2019, which was 31 games, his strikeout rate dropped by nearly 30%, and he also hit offspeed pitches much better. Jose Iglesias, signed to replace Andrelton Simmons, hit .373 with a 160 OPS+ last season, and posted an .801 OPS this spring, as well. And don’t forget about David Fletcher, the meme lord who has incredible bat-on-ball skill.
I’m also high on Dylan Bundy. He seemingly figured it out after coming to LA last year, and should be poised for success again in 2021. Andrew Heaney should also put together a solid year on the mound. In terms of relief, the acquisition of Raisel Iglesias was a big one. The Angels did make some other moves to address the ‘pen as well, bringing in new faces like Aaron Slegers, Alex Claudio, and Tuesday night signings Steve Cishek & Tony Watson. The pitching staff likely won’t be great, but they don’t necessarily need to be. LA has a very good offense, one that can carry them to the postseason as long as the pitching staff is just okay.
#3 Oakland Athletics (83-79)
Team MVP: Matt Chapman
Player to Watch: Jed Lowrie
The A’s are coming off an AL West title in 2020. They lost Marcus Semien to Toronto, but most of this lineup is still intact. The powerful Matt Olson is projected for 40 home runs, and the addition of Mitch Moreland brings another big lefty bat into the mix. Matt Chapman is a wizard defensively, and has posted an OPS+ of 130 since 2018. Jed Lowrie essentially went M.I.A. during his time with the Mets, but hit the ball well this spring and earned a role with Oakland. Young catcher Sean Murphy should be poised for a big season, as well.
In terms of pitching, the team boasts a pretty balanced staff. Offseason additions like Trevor Rosenthal, Sergio Romo, and Adam Kolarek should be enough to offset the loss of Liam Hendriks in the ‘pen. Chris Bassitt has posted a 3.29 ERA (128 ERA+) since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018. Sean Manaea and Jesus Luzardo are also likely to be plus starters in the rotation this year. Frankie Montas will be one to watch, after struggling across 53 innings last year.
The A’s should theoretically have enough to push for another playoff run this season, but the Astros and Angels both offer them a lot of competition within the division.
#4 Seattle Mariners (71-91)
Team MVP: Kyle Lewis
Player to Watch: Taylor Trammell
The Mariners are another team that isn’t quite there yet. However, they have some really exciting young talent. Outfielder Kyle Lewis was the AL Rookie of the Year last season, and fellow young outfielder Dylan Moore impressed as well. Another player I’m excited about is Taylor Trammell, who made the team out of Spring Training this year. The experienced bat of Kyle Seager will be an anchor for this team offensively, and the fans should also be excited for the return of Mitch Haniger, who missed the 2020 season.
Seattle’s starting rotation has a chance to be really good in 2021. Marco Gonzales is one of the more underrated pitchers in the game, and James Paxton looks like he’s getting his stuff back. Justus Sheffield was very impressive in 2020, and another young arm should play a big role in Justin Dunn. The Mariners are still a few years away, but they definitely have some exciting players, and should be a fun team to watch this season.
#5 Texas Rangers (68-94)
Team MVP: Joey Gallo
Player to Watch: Kohei Arihara
If there’s one positive thing to say about the Rangers, it’s this: at least they aren’t the Rockies.
Simply put, the Rangers should be one of the worst teams in the AL this season. Joey Gallo is one of the best power bats in baseball, but he hit just .181 last season. Young bats like Nick Solak, Ronald Guzman, and offseason addition Nate Lowe should be players to look out for this year. Khris Davis and Willie Calhoun won’t be ready to start the year, but will be factors in the lineup at some point. But, overall, this offense probably won’t be scoring an insane amount of runs.
On the pitching side, there are some guys to look forward to. Dane Dunning was the big return in the Lance Lynn trade, and Rangers fans should definitely be excited about him. Kohei Arihara came over from Japan this offseason, and had a solid spring before being named the team’s #2 starter. It will also be interesting to see if Mike Foltynewicz can find his stuff again. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Texas in the cellar of the American League again this year.