Tomorrow is the big day. Wednesday has slowly crawled along, almost like it’s Christmas Eve. To pass some time, here are my predictions for the MLB awards in each league. On top of picking a winner for each award, I’ll also list who I believe will round out the rest of the top five in voting.

Here we go, starting with the American League.

AL MVP: Mike Trout

This is the safest pick here, but that’s for a reason. Entering 2021, Mike Trout is still the best player in baseball. Last season, he finished 5th in the AL MVP race, and that was the lowest he’s finished, ever. Another MVP win for Trout would give him the 4th of his career. Currently, the only player in MLB history with more than 3 MVPs is Barry Bonds.

Since the 2012 season, Trout has led the majors in wRC+ five times. No other player has led the league in that category more than once in those nine seasons. Trout has also led the MLB in OPS+ six times in that span.

Not only is Trout likely to be the frontrunner by default, but the fact that the Angels can realistically make the playoffs this season helps his case even more. L.A. hasn’t qualified for a playoff berth since the 2014 season. As long as Trout does what Trout does, and the Angels make the postseason, he will be a shoo-in for his 4th MVP.

Other contenders: Jose Ramirez, Aaron Judge, Tim Anderson, Matt Chapman

AL Cy Young: Hyun-Jin Ryu

Yes, Gerrit Cole is probably a safer bet here. But, the best overall player won’t necessarily perform the best each year. If it isn’t Cole in 2021, then Hyun-Jin Ryu has a pretty good shot to take home his first career Cy Young Award.

Over the past three seasons, here’s some stats from Ryu: 2.30 ERA, 179 ERA+, 5.8 K/BB ratio in 332 innings. His underlying numbers are very impressive, as well. A hard-hit percentage of 29.2% ranked in the 90th percentile across the entire MLB in 2020, and his barrel rate (3.2%) was in the 94th (Baseball Savant). He also ranked in the 73rd percentile or higher in average exit velocity, xERA, and xwOBA. This isn’t just a mirage from the shortened season, either. Here’s his Savant profile from 2019, when he finished with the lowest ERA in baseball:

With the current state of the Blue Jays’ pitching staff, they’ll need another great year from Ryu if they want to be serious contenders. In 2021, it looks like they’ll get their wish.

Other contenders: Gerrit Cole, Lucas Giolito, Shane Bieber, Kenta Maeda

AL Rookie of the Year: Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena is coming off one of the best offensive postseasons in recent memory. In 20 games, he slashed .377/.442/.831, with a postseason-record 10 home runs. He also set another playoff record with 29 hits.

Will he replicate those numbers across a full season? Of course not. But he doesn’t need to in order to take home this award. During the 2020 regular season, Arozarena homered 7 times in 23 games, with an OPS+ of 182. This wasn’t a flash in the pan, either. In 19 games with the Cardinals in 2019, the Cuban-born outfielder posted an OPS+ of 136.

42 total regular-season games isn’t a huge sample size, but in that span, Arozarena has posted a hard-hit rate of 42.4%, well above the league average of 35.1%. He’s also recorded a barrel rate of 11.9%.

He raked in every level of the minors as well, culminating in a 1.002 OPS across AA and AAA in the Cards’ organization during 2019. He’s a safe bet to be named the American League’s best rookie this year.

Other contenders: Ryan Mountcastle, Triston McKenzie, Casey Mize, Jarred Kelenic

NL MVP: Juan Soto

Let’s be real here. Soto is arguably the best all-around hitter in the MLB already. Okay, maybe not, but he’s close. The fact that it’s even a conversation at the age of 22 speaks volumes about his ability in the box.

In the 2020 campaign, Soto led the MLB in the following categories: OBP (.490), SLG% (.695), OPS (1.185), and OPS+ (218). He also led the National League in batting average (.351), finishing second in the majors to only D.J. LeMahieu.

I mean, just look at this:

In only three seasons, Soto has finished in the top ten in MVP voting twice (5th last season), and has slashed .295/.415/.557, with 69 home runs in 313 games. And he did all of this before his age 22 season.

There’s some good competition for the NL MVP award (obviously), but Soto has to be the favorite in my mind.

Other contenders: Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr.

NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler

Of course, Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in the National League, and the MLB as a whole. But, in a similar vein as my AL Cy Young pick, the best pitcher doesn’t always have the best year.

In the midst of an absolutely stacked rotation, which includes reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, as well as the best pitcher of this generation (Clayton Kershaw), Walker Buehler is poised to name himself the ace of the rotation.

Since his first full season (2018), Buehler has recorded a 3.03 ERA (134 ERA+). He has a career walk rate of just 6.3%, and has allowed an xBA of only .215 (Baseball Savant). He throws his fastball over 50% of the time, and batters have hit just .189 in at-bats ending with the pitch since 2019. Buehler’s curveball also recorded a 50% whiff rate during the 2020 season.

The Dodgers could potentially have one of the best teams in MLB history this season, and Buehler could potentially have his best personal season, as well.

Other contenders: Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish, Jack Flaherty, Aaron Nola

NL Rookie of the Year: Ke’Bryan Hayes

This was an easy one for me. Just take a look at Hayes’ stint in the majors last season:

Again, yes, this is a small sample size. But we’re also talking about the Rookie of the Year award here. So how big of a sample size did you really expect?

The crazy thing about Hayes is that his bat arguably wasn’t even the most impressive part of his game last year. On defense, Hayes recorded 4 defensive runs saved, and an 8.9 UZR/150 in less than 200 innings (Fangraphs). He also recorded 15 plays out of zone. Zone, for anyone who is unfamiliar, is the area in which around 50% of batted balls are handled for outs.

So, not only was he unbelievable offensively (199 OPS+!), but he also showcased incredible consistency and range at the hot corner for the Pirates. Like Arozarena, I don’t think anyone expects these numbers to continue across a full season, but if he can even maintain a similar level of play, Hayes will run away with the ROTY in the National League.

Other contenders: Ian Anderson, Sixto Sanchez, Dylan Carlson, Joey Bart