The 2021 College Football National Championship will feature Alabama (12-0), and Ohio State (7-0). The last time these two teams played was in the Sugar Bowl in 2015, as the Ezekiel Elliot led Buckeyes took down Alabama to advance to the National Championship. I’m sure that game left a bad taste in Nick Saban’s mouth, as he should be eager for this rematch. This January 11th matchup has Alabama as a 9.5 point favorite, according to our friends at BUSR Sportsbook.
How Alabama Can Win
This Alabama team is filled with offensive firepower. Whether it’s on the ground, or through the air, this team can hurt you. Under center for the Crimson Tide was Heisman finalist, Mac Jones. Jones threw 36 touchdowns this season. 20 of those touchdowns were to Heisman winner DeVonta Smith. DeVonta Smith is the go-to player for this offense. Smith hauled in 105 catches for 1,641 yards along with those 20 touchdowns this year. It is uncertain how exactly the Ohio State secondary is going to stop him. If Ohio State cornerback Shaun Wade can somehow shut down Smith, they will have to also shut down Alabama running back, Najee Harris. Harris was 5th in the Heisman voting, with 1,387 yards and 24 touchdowns on 229 carries.
If Alabama gets the ball in the hands of their playmakers, it is going to be very difficult for Ohio State to keep up with the offense. With Justin Fields not being 100% with a rib injury he got during last weeks win against Clemson, it makes Alabama’s job a lot easier on the defensive side of the ball.
How Ohio State Can Win
There isn’t a recipe for slowing down the Alabama offense. Ryan Day and the Buckeyes should focus on their run game and controlling the clock, keeping the ball out of Alabama’s hands. Their run game has been very effective these past few weeks. Over the past three weeks, running back Trey Sermon has ran for 636 yards, and 4 touchdowns. With the injury of Master Teague, it gave Sermon the opportunity to be the lead back in this offense, and he has shined. If Justin Fields is healthy, he can also be a threat on the ground also. His athleticism and toughness makes him a very good runner, and difficult to tackle. After the big hit he took against Clemson, he may be more cautious, though. When he is not running, he is still a very effective passer. Fields threw for 6 touchdowns last week against Clemson, including two 45+ yarders to Chris Olave and Jameson Williams.
First team All-American DB Shaun Wade will have the tall task of covering DeVonta Smith. If he is able to limit him just a little bit, it gives this team a much better chance to win this game. But controlling the clock and establishing the run will be the key for the Buckeyes in the National Championship.
Prediction/Betting Card
Alabama is currently 8.5 favorites for Monday’s game. The Crimson Tide finished the season 8-4 ATS, and the Buckeyes finished 4-3. The O/U is set at 75.5.
Prediction – Alabama 41, Ohio State 31
Betting Card – Alabama -8.5
Justin Fields Over 290.5 Passing Yards
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