Ladies and gentlemen, the NFL is back. Last season was incredible, but something about empty stadiums just didn’t feel right. The atmosphere is half the fun with the National Football League, and starting tonight, the energy returns. Tampa Bay and Dallas will kick off another exciting season, as the Bucs begin their quest to defend their title. Tom Brady is eyeing another ring, and he has one of his best teams ever around him.
There are plenty of other teams with title aspirations as well, and both the AFC and NFC are filled with potential playoff squads. Today, I’ll be giving you my in-depth look at Week 1 of the season. From individual game picks to brief award previews, I’ll be breaking it all down right here. Last season’s picks went pretty well, and I can’t wait to do it all again.
Last Year: 89-34 Straight Up, 67-56 ATS
Thursday Night: Buccaneers (-8.5) vs. Cowboys
The season starts with a bang as Brady and Co. host “America’s Team” in Tampa. Both of these teams enter the season with high aspirations, but one seems more attainable than the other. Health is the name of the game for Dallas this year. If Dak Prescott and the O-Line can stay on the field, the Cowboys boast one of the NFL’s premier offenses. Even so, the defense enters with enough question marks to make a first week matchup with Brady scary. I think the Bucs coast.
The Pick: Bucs 34-20
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Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Eagles at Falcons (-3)
Here are two teams hoping to pull a complete 180 from last season. Both the Falcons and the Eagles endured rough 2020 seasons. Both of these franchises are less than 5 years removed from Super Bowl appearances, but it couldn’t feel farther from that currently. I have faith in Jalen Hurts to be exciting this season. Give me the Eagles in a mild week 1 surprise.
The Pick: Eagles 27-24
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Steelers at Bills (-6.5)
Two of the top teams from the AFC last season square off to start 2021. I think these are two groups currently headed in opposite directions. The Steelers have been a proud franchise for the past 15 years or so, while the Bills have slowly climbed back into relevancy. Fresh off an AFC Title Game appearance, there are real Super Bowl hopes in Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Steelers were embarrassed by the Browns in the playoffs and face a lot of questions. Bills Mafia will be rocking, and Josh Allen picks up where he left off.
The Pick: Bills 30-20
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Vikings (-3) at Bengals
This is one of the more interesting week 1 matchups to me. There are so many different opinions on the Vikings this year. It really comes down to Kirk Cousins. He has the weapons, it’s time for him to perform. Seeing Joe Burrow back on the field is going to be awesome. He was turning in a stellar rookie season before his injury, and he returns to a more talented offense. Hopefully this year’s O-Line can give him more time. I think Dalvin Cook is the X-factor in this one.
The Pick: Vikings 27-20
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49ers (-7.5) at Lions
The 49ers are a team to monitor early in the season. It’s rare that you have a team with both playoff aspirations and a QB controversy. Seeing how Trey Lance is used early in the season, and how quickly his role expands, will tell us a lot about the Niners this year. They fall into a good first matchup with a team that many expect to be among the worst in the Lions. Detroit has some pieces on offense, but they’re still a ways away heading into 2021.
The Pick: 49ers 33-17
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Cardinals at Titans (-4)
In what should be one of the most explosive week 1 matchups, the Titans will play host to the Cardinals. This feels like a make or break season for Kyler Murray. He’s shown he can put up the numbers, but he needs to start winning in what is probably the NFL’s toughest division. Arizona’s defense will have their hands full with Tennessee’s new look offense that adds Julio Jones. Expect a shootout, but let’s go with an upset in Nashville.
The Pick: Cardinals 42-38
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Seahawks (-2.5) at Colts
The Colts season could go a number of ways this year. I’d love to see Carson Wentz return to top form. If he does, I expect them to win quite a few games in a weaker division. If he’s the Wentz of the past few years, it could be a bumpy ride. The Seahawks typically come out of the gates strong, especially Russell Wilson. Because this is a week 1 matchup, I like Seattle. If they met later in the year, I’d probably roll with Indy.
The Pick: Seahawks 24-21
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Chargers (-1) at Football Team
These are two of the teams I’m expecting to make the biggest leaps this season. That makes a week 1 matchup between them a true toss up. Justin Herbert runs into a juggernaut on defense to kick off his sophomore season. I’ve talked about the Washington defense before, and I’m very high on them. If they keep the Chargers in check, Fitzmagic will make just enough plays at home.
The Pick: Washington 23-17
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Jets at Panthers (-4.5)
The Sam Darnold revenge game. Darnold starts his Carolina career against his former team, and you can bet he’s chomping at the bit. He also has a very good offense around him. I love Zach Wilson, and think the Jets will be competitive this season, but week one goes to the Panthers.
The Pick: Panthers 34-27
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Jaguars (-3) at Texans
Probably the least exciting matchup this week, Trevor Lawrence makes his NFL debut against a division foe. The Texans feel like the pick to be the NFL’s worst team this year. Everything in Houston is a mess right now, and it starts with their Deshaun Watson situation. Off-field distractions + a lack of talent = an opening loss.
The Pick: Jaguars 28-21
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Dolphins at Patriots (-3)
Mac Jones is another rookie that will make his NFL debut this weekend. The Patriots have a lot of faith in the Alabama product, and he’ll get thrown into the fire against an aggressive Miami defense. Tua Tagovailoa has quite a few doubters. The concerns are legitimate, but he’s only entering his second year. Miami has a shot to be a playoff team if he plays to his potential. There are a lot of weapons on the Dolphins, but I think the home-field advantage helps the Pats edge one out in this division game.
The Pick: Patriots 21-17
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Packers (-3) at Saints
Aaron Rodgers takes the field for Green Bay despite all the offseason controversy. Say what you want about the situation, but the MVP has earned the right to voice his complaints. The fact is, Rodgers is probably a 5-6 win difference maker for any team. The Saints meanwhile prepare for life post-Drew Brees. I have a lot of faith in Jameis Winston to outperform expectations. Week 1, however, goes to the Pack.
The Pick: Packers 38-27
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Browns at Chiefs (-6.5)
The game of the week, in my opinion. I believe these are the two best teams in the AFC heading into this season, and I’m very excited to see what both teams show us in week 1. We know what Kansas City’s offense is going to bring to the table. I’m interested to see how the Browns plan to attack it. Getting Nick Chubb going early will be crucial. Andy Reid has been stellar in week 1 since joining the Chiefs. That factor, plus the crowd at Arrowhead, gives KC the advantage for me this time around.
The Pick: Chiefs 35-31
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Broncos (-2.5) at Giants
Is this the year Daniel Jones puts it together? Giants fans have to hope so. If Saquon Barkley stays healthy, and Jones can hit his improved receiving core, there’s reason to believe the Giants can make a run in the NFC East. Denver knows what they’re going to get with Teddy Bridgewater. He’s not going to pop, but he probably won’t make many mistakes either. With a strong defense, and a good receiver group, that’s probably ok.
The Pick: Giants 26-23
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Sunday Night: Bears at Rams (-7.5)
Matt Stafford makes his LA debut on Sunday Night Football. After trading places with Jared Goff, Stafford finds himself in the best situation he’s been in in a long time. The Rams defense will be stout as usual as well. I get why the Bears aren’t going with Justin Fields out of the gate, but it doesn’t mean I like it. Andy Dalton’s ceiling is known. With him, Chicago is not a playoff team. Who knows if they are with Fields? Either way, until the reigns are passed off, I’ll struggle to pick the Bears against any contenders.
The Pick: Rams 31-20
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Monday Night: Ravens (-4.5) at Raiders
The first full game with fans in Vegas should be electric. The stadium is incredible, and I’m quite interested to see how many visiting fans pack the house, seeing a Vegas trip as a perfect opportunity to see their team on the road. While I do think the Raiders will be competitive this season, the Ravens have been a fantastic week 1 team in the Lamar Jackson era. They know how to come out of the gates strong, and I think they’ll do it again Monday night.
The Pick: Ravens 34-28
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Award Previews:
MVP:
- Patrick Mahomes– Kansas City Chiefs
- Justin Herbert– Los Angeles Chargers
- Aaron Rodgers– Green Bay Packers
- Josh Allen– Buffalo Bills
- Lamar Jackson– Baltimore Ravens
DPOTY:
- TJ Watt- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Aaron Donald– Los Angeles Rams
- Myles Garrett- Cleveland Browns
OROTY:
- Zach Wilson– New York Jets
- Trevor Lawrence- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Mac Jones– New England Patriots
DROTY:
- Micah Parsons- Dallas Cowboys
- Pat Surtain- Denver Broncos
- Jamin Davis- Washington Football Team
Comeback POTY:
- Dak Prescott- Dallas Cowboys
- Christian McCaffrey– Carolina Panthers
- Joe Burrow– Cincinnati Bengals
COTY:
- Matt Rhule– Carolina Panthers
- Ron Rivera– Washington Football Team
- Brandon Staley– Los Angeles Chargers
