The New Year’s Six kicks off on Saturday when one college football powerhouse takes on the Big 12 Conference Champion in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. It’s the Alabama Crimson Tide – winners of three straight – going up against the Kansas State Wildcats who finished the season with four straight victories including an overtime thriller to take down undefeated TCU. The Crimson Tide are a 7-point favorite with the total set at 56.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Two losses and missing the College Football Playoff usually indicates a down season for the Alabama Crimson Tide. In reality, Alabama lost games to LSU and Tennessee by a combined four points. Led by Bryce Young, the offense averaged 40.8 points (4th) and 487 total yards of offense per game (20th). Young showcased serious arm talent and impressive escapeability in 2022, throwing for 3,007 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, adding 195 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground. With uncertainty surrounding the running back position coming into the season, Jahmyr Gibbs quickly put any concern to rest. Gibbs rushed for 850 yards and 7 touchdowns, tacking on 378 receiving yards on 42 receptions, and 3 touchdowns.
On the defensive side of the ball, it’s the status quo for Alabama with dominating effort after dominating effort. Allowing just 18 points and 328.9 total yards of offense per game, success on Saturday is almost certainly predicated on the Tide’s rush defense. It allowed 125.3 rushing yards per game, and Deuce Vaughn poses as one of the greater threats on the ground Alabama faces in 2022.
Kansas State Wildcats
Winning the Big 12 doesn’t wash away the misses opportunities for Kansas State throughout the season. Loses the Tulane, Texas and TCU throughout the course of the regular season ruined any hope of sniffing the College Football Playoff. K-State averages 33.2 points and just under 430 total yards of offense per game. Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez led the Wildcats throughout a majority of the season before exiting the game against Baylor with a “significant lower-body injury”.
Will Howard grabbed the starting role by the horns and held on tight, wowing during wins against Baylor, Kansas and TCU. Howard appeared in six games, starting four, throwing for 1,423 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. The presence of All-American running back Deuce Vaughn certainly helped Howard ease into the starting groove. Vaughn rushed for 1,425 yards and 8 touchdowns in what is likely his final collegiate season.
Defensively, the Wildcats allow 20.1 points per game. They give up just under 380 total yards of offense per game and rank 110th in passing yards per game allowed. Kansas State needs to control the trenches if they want a chance at slowing down Alabama’s offense.
Betting Trends
- The Crimson Tide is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 bowl games.
- Under 4-0-1 in Crimson Tide’s last 5 bowl games.
- Under is 5-2 in Kansas State’s last 7 non-conference games.
- Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games.
The Don’s Allstate Sugar Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is Kansas State +7. Kansas State plays an incredibly scrappy style of football that gave Alabama fits throughout the season. My lean is the under. “Low-scoring affair” could still mean upwards of 54 points, but that still wouldn’t eclipse the high total given to this game. Lock in the Wildcats taking the points in this one.