The Birmingham Bowl has two talented offenses going head-to-head with Coastal Carolina from the Sun Belt going up against the American Athletic Conference’s East Carolina Pirates. Coastal Carolina comes in losing two straight games without their starting quarterback, while the Pirates roll into the Birmingham Bowl winning four out of their last six games. East Carolina is a 7-point favorite with the over/under set at 65.5. Here is my betting preview for the Birmingham Bowl.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
The Coastal Carolina offense was looking to have another really successful season before QB Grayson McCall got injured. McCall has thrown for 2,633 passing yards with 24 passing touchdowns and two interceptions in 10 starts this season. The number one target for McCall is wide receiver Sam Pinckney. Pinckney has 67 receptions with 917 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Coastal Carolina averages 29.1 points per game this season, but they averaged 32.2 points per game with McCall under center. The Chanticleers are going to need McCall to bring his best stuff in his last game as a Coastal Carolina Chanticleer.
Defensively, the Chanticleers have struggled. They give up 30.1 points per game and allow 431.7 total yards of offense per game (207th). Their pass defense is atrocious, allowing 282 passing yards per game (t-250th). Coastal Carolina is going up against a top-30 passing attack in this bowl game. They will need their pass defense to step up if they want to stand a chance against East Carolina.
East Carolina Pirates
The Pirates were one of the more effective offenses in the nation. East Carolina averages 30.8 points per game and 466.5 total yards of offense per game (34th). Obviously, the Pirates are known for the passing game, which nets 288.5 yards per game (28th). The maestro of this offense is Holton Ahlers. Ahlers threw for 3,408 passing yards with 23 passing touchdowns and five interceptions. East Carolina has two receivers that have 60+ catches and over 900 receiving yards. Those two receivers are Isaiah Winstead (82 receptions 1,013 receiving yards, four touchdowns) and C.J. Johnson (60 receptions, 933 receiving yards, nine touchdowns). These three have been fantastic for the Pirates’ offense.
One of the underrated things about this Pirates offense has been running back Keaton Mitchell. Mitchell has rushed for 1,325 rushing yards (7.4 ypc) and 13 touchdowns. The two time All-AAC running back is only a sophomore and has back-to-back 1,000 rushing seasons. East Carolina was a one-dimensional offense for the past few seasons until Mitchell came to the Pirates. Now, with Mitchell, the offense becomes a complete unit.
Defensively, the Pirates front seven is fantastic at stopping the run. They allow 111.4 rushing yards per game while allowing 299.5 passing yards per game. The Pirates need their secondary to step up, or else we will have a shootout on our hands. East Carolina has given up 42 and 46 points in their last two games. If they can get that number down, they should be able to come home with a Birmingham Bowl victory.
Betting Trends
-Over is 10-4 in Chanticleers last 14 non-conference games.
-Chanticleers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
-Under is 9-4 in Pirates last 13 non-conference games.
-Pirates are 4-0 ATS in last four non-conference games.
The Don’s Birmingham Bowl Best Bet
My official play is Coastal Carolina +7. McCall playing in this game is a big reason why I am taking the Chanticleers and the points. I stopped myself from taking the over because I think there is a chance this finishes as a 23-20 type of game, and I would be extremely disappointed in myself if I had the over for that type of game. Underdogs are also 10-7 ATS in the 17 bowl games so far this season heading into Tuesday’s slate. The lean is over 65.5, but lock in the Chanticleers covering the number.
