We’re out here in Boca Raton getting ready for this great bowl game. We have the Liberty Flames taking on the Toledo Rockets. Liberty, an FBS Independent team finished the year 8-4, will be without head coach Hugh Freeze who accepted the head coach position at Auburn. Toledo is coming off a MAC title victory over Ohio. The Rockets are also in a bowl game for the fifth time under head coach Jason Candle. Toledo is a 3.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 54. With that being said, here is my betting preview for the Boca Raton Bowl.
Liberty Flames
Liberty has won three straight bowl games under Hugh Freeze. However, with the head coach moving on to Auburn it will be tough for Josh Aldridge, the interim head coach for the Flames. Liberty averages around 28.3 points per game and 418.8 total yards of offense per game as well (88th in the nation). This Flames offense, however, has struggled in their last three games. Offensively, they have averaged 371 total yards of offense per game in the last three which is a huge drop from their season average. Part of the reason why the Flames offense took a step back is because starting running back Dae Dae Hunter is out for the season. Hunter had 854 rushing yards to go along with 8 rushing touchdowns and 6.6 yards per carry. In order for this offense to be successful they will need Shedro Louis and T.J Green to step up in a big way.
Defensively, the Flames are pretty good. They give up 24.9 points per game to go along with 370.1 total yards of offense per game as well which ranks 103rd in the nation. Liberty gives up just a little over 200 passing yards per game. Also, the Flames only give up a first down on third down 32.2% of the time. Liberty also ranks in the top 20th in the nation in takeaways (23). If the Flames want to win this game, they need to control the takeaway battle.
Toledo Rockets
The Toledo Rockets offense is led by their quarterback who is also their leading rusher in DeQuan Finn. Finn has thrown for 2,127 passing yards to go along with 22 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. Also he has 608 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry and 8 rushing touchdowns. Toledo’s offense ranks in the top 40 (39th) in the nation in points per game as they put up 32.1 points per game. They also average 417.9 total yards per game offensively. The Rockets offense can be explosive when Finn is on the field. If Finn is on the field he will create some matchup nightmares for the Liberty Flames.
Defensively, the Rockets give up 25.5 points per game. They are also ranked 34th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game (185.5). Toledo only lets opponents convert on third down 33.8% of the time. If they can make this Liberty team continue to turn the football over like they did a ton in 2022, Toledo will be in a good position to win this game.
Betting Trends
-Toledo is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs FBS Independent teams
-Over is 8-0 in Rockets last 8 games following a ATS win.
-Liberty is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
-Flames are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
The Don’s Boca Raton Best Bet
My official play in this one is over 54. I want to take Toledo so bad, but I am seriously nervous about betting against Liberty. Both offenses are going to put up points and I would need Daequan Finn to have himself a game in order to cover 3.5 in my opinion. My lean is Liberty +3.5 only because they have been an underdog four times this season and they have covered every single game. I don’t want to have to pick a side here, so I will root for points in the Boca Raton Bowl.