The Citrus Bowl is a power-five matchup between the SEC and the Big Ten. LSU will be representing the SEC while the Big Ten is represented by Purdue. Both teams are looking to rebound from losses in their respective conference title games. LSU was embarrassed by Georgia and Purdue didn’t stand a chance against Michigan. The Tigers are a 15.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 54.5. With that being said here is my betting preview for the Citrus Bowl.
LSU Tigers
The LSU Tigers bounced back in Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge. LSU averages 32.3 points per game to go along with 459.3 total yards of offense per game (40th). This Tigers offense is led by quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels threw for 2,774 passing yards to go along with 16 passing touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He also added 818 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns on 4.5 yards per carry. Daniels was the focal point of the Tigers’ offense, without him the Tigers would have been as successful without him this season.
Defensively, the Tigers were average in the SEC this season. They allow 23.7 points per game to go along with giving up 373.8 total yards of offense per game. LSU’s defense is going up against a Purdue offense that will struggle with pieces out. If the Tigers want to end the first season of the Brian Kelly era off on a good note, they will get pressure on Purdue early. Then capitalize on the mistakes that the Boilermakers will make and blow them out of the water. Look for LSU to get going defensively early and to carry on dominating the Boilermakers.
Purdue Boilermakers
The Purdue Boilermakers have a lot of question marks coming into this game. They won’t have their starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell or their star wide receiver Charlie Jones. Their head coach left to take another job and we have no idea what this offense will look like. Looks like senior quarterback Austin Burton will get the start for the Boilermakers. With a lot of question marks going into this game, I really don’t see Purdue’s offense being much of a factor in this one.
Defensively, the Boilermakers were good in the Big Ten this season. Purdue allows 24.6 points per game and allows 364.5 total yards of offense per game (94th). They are t-80th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game (135.9). Purdue is facing a dual-threat quarterback from LSU so they will have to focus on him. He is the key to LSU’s success on offense. If Purdue can close in on him and make it hell for him to do anything. They will be in a good spot to cover this extremely high spread.
Betting Trends
-LSU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
-Over is 4-0 in LSU’s last 4 bowl games.
-Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against SEC opponents.
-Over is 6-0 in the Boilermakers’ last 6 bowl games.
The Don’s Citrus Bowl Best Bet
My official play is under 54.5. I think Purdue’s offense is going to be in shambles, but their defense keeps it close. LSU is going to roll at points, but Purdue won’t be able to put the points up to get it to the over. My lean is Purdue +15.5. I think Purdue can keep this within three scores, but I am not overly confident enough on it. Lock in the under 54.5 as there will not be enough points to go around in this one.