If this bowl matchup was talked about at the beginning of the regular season, I would have thought about this completely differently. We have an SEC vs Pac-12 showdown between the Florida Gators and the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State shocked a lot of people posting a 9-3 record this season, while Florida has been disappointing to say the least. The line for this game has Oregon State is a 10-point favorite against the Gators with the over/under sitting at 53. With that being said, here is my betting preview for the SRS Distribution Bowl.
Florida Gators
The Florida Gators were projected to be a lot better in 2022 with new head coach Billy Napier. A lot of uncertainties and a lot of bad play plummeted the Gators to being .500 this season. Florida had one of the best rushing attacks in the country, coming in at 27th in the nation for just a little over 213 yards per game.
A big part of that reason was due to quarterback Anthony Richardson, who will not play in this matchup. His backup, Jalen Kitna, has been dismissed from the program. They will also be without leading receiver Justin Shorter, who declared for the NFL Draft. Florida is relying on third-year sophomore Jack Miller III, who is going to make his first collegiate start. In total, Florida will have at least 20 scholarship players that will not be playing in this game.
Defensively, the Gators have struggled, giving up 426.3 total yards of offense per game and 28.8 points per game. They rank 179th in passing yards allowed per game and 192nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Oregon State rushes for just under 200 yards per contest and scores around 32.4 points per game as well. The Gators will need guys to step up defensively or they will be in big trouble in this SRS Distribution Bowl matchup.
Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State has quarterback Chance Nolan entering the transfer portal, although they have been playing without him for a while now and still winning games behind quarterback Ben Gulbranson. Gulbranson has thrown for 1,290 passing yards to go along with a 8:5 touchdown to interception ratio. The Beavers have put together a great running game led by freshman running back Damien Martinez, who averages 6.1 yards per carry and rushed for 970 yards.
Oregon State has averaged 406.3 total yards of offense this season, which ranks them 105th in the country. The Beavers have won six of seven, including a win over Oregon, and the lone loss was at Washington by a field goal.
Defensively, Oregon State has been especially good this year. They rank 34th in rushing yards allowed per game and 79th in total yards allowed per game. Oregon State also allows 21.4 points per game which is very solid for a team that plays in a conference where teams put up a ton of points. The Beavers will be without cornerback Rejzohn Wright in this one. Oregon State’s defense should put together a stellar performance to get a 10-win season for the first time since 2006.
Betting Trends
-Oregon State is 10-2 ATS in 12 games this season.
-Oregon States are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
-Florida is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 in December.
-Under is 5-1 in Florida’s last six games following an ATS win.
The Don’s SRS Distribution Bowl Best Bet
My official play here is under 53. I think Oregon State is going to run the football a ton and control the majority of the game. Florida’s offense won’t be up to par against this Beavers defense. I would lean Oregon State -10. However, in bowl games when teams with more than seven wins go up against teams with six wins or fewer the ATS record trends towards the six or fewer win teams. The six or fewer win teams are 54-36-1 (60%) ATS against teams with seven or more wins. This SRS Distribution bowl game will be entertaining to watch because we need to see what direction both of these schools will go in moving forward.
