It’s a rivalry reignited for the 2022 iteration of the Duke’s Mayo Bowl between two former conference foes. The Big Ten takes on the ACC with the Maryland Terrapins going up against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Maryland comes into this one losing three out of its last four games, while NC State comes in winning three out of its last five games overall. NC State enters as 1-point favorites with the total set at 46.5.
Maryland Terrapins
The Terrapins put up some impressive numbers offensively in 2022. The team averaged 29 points per game and 426.6 total yards of offense per game. Taulia Tagovailoa – brother of Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa – threw for 2,787 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. As the spark plug to the Terps’ offense, Tagovailoa poses a threat to any defense when he’s “on”. However, Rakim Jarrett’s decision to opt-out of the game leaves the quarterback without his top target.
But that doesn’t mean Taulia is helpless in the backfield. Freshman running back Roman Hemby had 924 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns. Hemby has his work cut out for him against the Wolfpack’s top-20 rush defense. But running the ball is Maryland’s key to success when opening the passing attack for Tagovailoa as the game progresses.
Defensively, the Terrapins weren’t as bad as people think in 2022. They give up 24.1 points per game, allowing 377.7 total yards of offense per game. And while the Terrapins rank 117th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game, it could benefit from facing the North Carolina State’s third-string quarterback.
NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack took a step back season in 2022. Devin Leary – the program’s ultra-talented quarterback – missed the back half of the regular season with a torn pec before deciding to enter the transfer portal. Leary’s backup M.J. Morris is out on Friday with a lower-body injury. That leaves redshirt freshman Ben Finley.
Finley entered the game against Louisville late and started the double-overtime win against North Carolina. He threw for 472 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, and 1 interception. Finley is the key if the Wolfpack finds success against Maryland, but it requires more than just a third-stringer’s effort if the goal is to dump a Gatorade jug filled with mayonnaise on head coach Dave Doeren when the clock strikes zero.
Defensively, the Wolfpack needs another stand-up effort from its impressive rush defense. Allowing less than 20 points per game, North Carolina State allows an average of 338.8 total yards of offense in contests this season. Opposing offenses also struggle at converting third downs against this Wolfpack defense, sporting just a 31.2% conversion rate. Slowing down Taulia Tagovailoa becomes a primary objective on Friday, and that begins with eliminating Roman Hemby from relevancy early.
Betting Trends
- Terrapins own 6-1 record ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Over is 5-1 in Maryland’s last 6 bowl appearances.
- Wolfpack sports an 8-3-1 record ATS in its last 12 bowl games.
- Over is 7-1 in the Wolfpack’s last 8 bowl games.
The Don’s Duke’s Mayo Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is Maryland ML. It’s tough to judge the matchup as players from both sides enter the transfer portal. But the Terrapins have the better quarterback. I tend to lean toward the under, too. However, unders haven’t been a friend this week. This could go down to the wire, but it’s the Terps that get the final say.