The Fenway Bowl reignites the Keg of Nails rivalry. Although it has an extremely different feel to it, the Fenway Bowl matchup between Cincinnati and Louisville should be an entertaining game nonetheless. There are some different factors in this matchup, with both teams having interim coaches for this matchup. Cincinnati’s former head coach Luke Fickell just took the job at Wisconsin, so no big deal. However, former Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield just took the Cincinnati job. This has the making of reigniting the rivalry again. The odds for this one have Louisville as a 1.5-point favorite with the over/under sitting at 39. With that being said, let’s get into this fantastic bowl matchup.
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats took an immense step back in 2022, but losing three of their top performers on offense will do that to you. However, Ben Bryant came in as a transfer this year and played well. He got hurt late in the season and the Bearcats haven’t been right since the injury. Cincinnati will have to turn to Evan Prater, who only threw for 340 passing yards and has one interception on the season. Opt outs are going to kill this Cincinnati offense, but they will have their leading receiver Tyler Scott (899 receiving yards/9 touchdowns).
However, they will be without second-leading receiver Tre Tucker and All-AAC tight end Josh Whyle, who have opted out. With the way that Prater has looked, I wouldn’t be surprised if interim head coach Kerry Coombs decides to go run-heavy in this matchup. Louisville’s defense ranked 91st in the country against the run, allowing just over 140.6 rushing yards per game.
Defensively, this Cincinnati team is very solid. They ranked 35th in the country in passing yards allowed per game, allowing just over 186 passing yards on average. This defense has only allowed 20 points per game this season as well. However, even though their star cornerback Ja’Quan Shepard is entering the transfer portal, this defense should be locked and loaded for this fight against Louisville in the Fenway Bowl.
Louisville Cardinals
Louisville is being led by interim coach Deion Branch. Offensively, the Cardinals will be without starting quarterback Malik Cunningham, who is opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Louisville will also be without Tyler Hudson, their leading receiver, and Tiyon Evans, their backup running back. Coach Deion Branch will start Brock Domann, who appeared in nine games this season. Domann threw for 899 passing yards to go with a 3:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
This makes me believe that leading rusher Jawhar Jordan will get a significant amount of touches in this one. Louisville’s numbers offensively aren’t bad, but losing some key pieces is going to hurt them. A team that ranks 60th in the country in rushing yards per game is not a bad thing, but when you lose weapons on offense the opposing defense will key into one side of the ball.
Defensively, the Cardinals have been good as they only allow 369.8 total yards of offense per game. While only giving up 20.2 points per game as well. Louisville will be without starting cornerback Kei’Trel Clark who is entering the NFL Draft. Clark made an impact defensively and he will be missed by this Cardinals defense.
Betting Trends
-Under is 4-0 in Louisville’s last four non-conference games.
-Over is 3-0-1 in Cincinnati’s last 4 non-conference games.
-Cincinnati is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
-Louisville are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.
The Don’s Best Fenway Bowl Bet
My official play in this one is under 39.5. Both offenses are going to struggle and I really don’t see a side that has a significant advantage in this matchup. This has a 13-10 or 17-14 type of feel to it. Ride the under, and my lean would be Louisville in this Fenway Bowl matchup.
