We have the First Responder Bowl taking place today and boy, I am ready for this one. The matchup between the AAC and the Mountain West will create an intriguing clash, with the Memphis Tigers going up against the Utah State Aggies. Memphis comes in losing five out of their last seven games overall. Meanwhile, the Aggies have won five out of their last seven games. The Memphis Tigers are 7.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 58.5. Here is my betting preview for the First Responder Bowl.
Memphis Tigers
The Memphis Tigers have an offense that is known for its explosiveness. They rank 22nd in the country in points per game (35.1). The Tigers also average 438 yards of total offense (56th), with 279.8 of it coming through the air (37th). Sophomore quarterback Seth Henigan is the focal point of this offense. Henigan threw for 3,287 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. He distributes the ball well to three receivers with over 500 receiving yards this year–Javon Ivory, Caden Prieskorn and Eddie Lewis.
Memphis takes on a good pass defense from Utah State, so they will need their running game to step up. Jevyon Ducker is Memphis’ leading rusher and will have to be effective in this game. The most carries Ducker has had in a game this season is 14, which was 14.4 percent of his carries in 2022. Especially considering the poor form to end the regular season, the Tigers will need to step up tremendously offensively.
Defensively, the Tigers have been good at stopping the run. Other than that, the defense has been mediocre. They give up 27.3 points per game and allow 380.5 total yards of offense (118th). Also, their passing defense has been what has killed them the last seven weeks. They give up 250.2 passing yards per game, and the Aggies have to recognize that and take advantage. Memphis will need their passing defense to be a big part of the reason why the defense looks good. Look for Memphis to come in with some energy today.
Utah State Aggies
The Aggies offensive numbers won’t stick out to you, but they have put together a nice little season out in the Mountain West. They average 23.3 points per game (t-99th) and 373.3 total yards of offense per outing (162nd). Their original starting quarterback, Logan Bonner, has been out for the season since late September. Now, Cooper Legas is the signal-caller, and the offense has been good since he took over. In his eight starts, the offense averaged 363.7 total yards of offense, and the Aggies has posted a 5-3 record in those games. By comparison, they were 1-3 in games where Bonner.
However, the focal point of this offense is running back Calvin Tyler Jr. who saw an uptick in his production this season, with 237 carries to go along with 1,043 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. If Tyler gets 20 or more carries in a game, the Aggies are 4-0. Also, when he rushes for over 100 yards, the Aggies are 5-1. This shows how vital he is to this offense’s success. Look for the Aggies to key in on him and allow him to help carry them to a First Responder Bowl victory.
Defensively, the Aggies are alright at best. They are very good against the pass, allowing 200 passing yards per game. They do give up just under 200 rushing yards per game as well, which is 226th in the country. If Utah State keeps up its ways against the pass, they have a chance to get the victory today.
Betting Trends
-Over is 9-4 in Tigers last 13 games overall.
-Tigers 1-5 ATS in last 6 bowl games.
-Under is 8-1 in Aggies last 9 bowl games.
-Utah State 1-0 as a 7-13.5 point underdog.
The Don’s First Responder Best Bet
My official play is Utah State +7.5. The Aggies have shown to be good enough to keep this game close against Memphis. If Memphis’ offense is lethal early, it will be a tough one. However, I see the Aggies creating enough havoc that they keep this to a one-score game. My lean in this is the under 57.5. The reasoning behind it is like I said earlier. This will be a close game, and I don’t think the total will get as high as it is right now. Lock in the Aggies to cover the number in the First Responder Bowl.