This Frisco Bowl matchup is a battle between two teams that lost their conference title games. We’ve got North Texas from C-USA going up against the Mountain West runner-up Boise State in this one. North Texas will play after they fired Seth Littrell, which made no sense in my opinion. The Mean Green look to have one final win as a Conference USA team before they head over to the AAC next year while Boise State is looking to get their tenth win of the season. The line is set as Boise State is a 10.5-point favorite with the over/under at 59.5. Here is my betting preview for the Frisco Bowl.
North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green will have interim head coach Phil Bennett leading the way on the sideline. North Texas is led by 29-year-old quarterback Austin Aune. Aune threw for 3,309 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions this year. The Mean Green lived up to their name on the offensive side of the football. Averaging 33.9 points per game (29th) to go along with 469.3 total yards of offense per game (32nd). They also rush for over 200 yards per game, which is a big feature to this offense. North Texas have three running backs that you need to keep an eye on after strong years from each. Ayo Adeyi (7.6 ypc), Ikaika Ragsdale (5.5 ypc) and Oscar Adaway (4.9 ypc). This running game needs to get going early if they want to have a chance against the Broncos’ stellar defense.
Defensively, the Mean Green have not had the same success. They give up 31.5 points per game and 474 total yards of offense per game. North Texas does have the C-USA defensive player in the year in KD Davis. He had 132 tackles this season, which is impressive while also showing that there isn’t much help around him. If their defensive line can put some pressure up front against this Boise State offensive line, they could be in a good scenario. However, they will need a turnover or two in order to succeed in beating this Boise State team.
Boise State Broncos
The Boise State Broncos thought that they were going through it this season. However, once they entered conference play the Broncos were a completely different team. After Boise State lost to UTEP, they fired their offensive coordinator, starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal, and the offense took off. With Dirk Koetter calling plays and freshman quarterback Taylen Green starting, this offense put up numbers. They score 29.1 points per game to go along with 390.3 total yards of offense per game. Another key factor of this offense is their running game led by running back George Holani. Holani rushed for 1,133 rushing yards to go along with 10 touchdowns and 5.3 yards per carry. If Boise State wants to win this game, Holani needs over 18 carries in this game. North Texas gives up a ton of rushing yards per game and if Holani can get going early, it will be a long day for North Texas’ defense.
Defensively, Boise State has been one of the best defenses in the country. They give up 18.5 points per game and they rank in the top fifteen in the country in passing yards allowed per game (10th) and total yards of offense per game (13th). The Broncos also allow opponents to convert on third down under 30 percent of the time. Boise State’s defense is the key for them in this one.
Betting Trends
-Mean Green are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against teams with winning records.
-Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall for the Mean Green.
-Under is 14-6 in Boise State’s last 20 overall.
-Boise State is 0-4 in their last four non-conference games.
The Don’s Frisco Bowl Best Bet
My official play is North Texas +10.5. I think that Boise State’s defense plays well, but I see the Mean Green keeping this within the number. My lean is over in this one. I do think both offenses are going to put up points, with Boise State making more stops defensively and North Texas keeping it within the 10.5-point spread. The Frisco Bowl will be interesting and I expect to see a close game with a ton of points getting scored here.