The Gasparilla Bowl has two power five conference teams fighting to end their respective seasons with a win. We have an ACC vs SEC showdown here with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons taking on the Missouri Tigers. Wake Forest comes into this one losing four out of their final five games this season. While Missouri has won four out of their last six games. The Tigers were the only team to lose to Georgia by one possession this season as well. Wake Forest opens up as a 2-point favorite with the over/under set at 58.5. With that being said, here is my betting preview for the Gasparilla Bowl.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons RPO-style offense creates havoc for opposing defenses. The Demon Deacons throw for 314.6 passing yards per game (15th in the nation) and average 465.5 total yards of offense per game as well (35th in the nation). Wake Forest also is t-15th in the nation with 36.8 points per game. This offense runs through quarterback Sam Hartman who has thrown for 3,421 passing yards to go with 35 passing touchdowns (t-5th) and 11 interceptions. Hartman also has a favorite target in wide receiver A.T. Perry, he has had six games this season seeing ten or more targets in one game. On the season Perry has 980 receiving yards to go along with 14 touchdowns. This offense will be key and they need to focus on putting up points early and maintaining the time of possession.
Defensively, the Demon Deacons struggle. They give up 29.3 points per game and 427.3 total yards of offense per game (190th). Wake Forest is good against the run as they only give up 137.5 rushing yards per game (82nd in the nation). They will need the defense to bring their A-game in this one. Look for the Demon Deacons to step up to the opportunity.
Missouri Tigers
The Missouri Tigers offensively created some struggles during points in the season especially against a good defense like Georgia. Missouri averages 25.5 points per game and averages 382.5 total yards of offense per game as well (145th in the nation). The Tigers do have a good running game as they average 158.1 rushing yards per game (118th in the nation). Brady Cook has been good for Missouri this season. In 12 starts this year, Cook has thrown for 2,509 passing yards to go along with 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Cook also added 547 rushing yards as well to go along with 4.4 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns. Missouri will be without Cook’s top target Dominic Lovett in this one as he entered the transfer portal. Without Lovett, the Tigers’ passing game will struggle in this Gasparilla Bowl matchup.
Defensively, Missouri has good numbers. They only give up 25 points per game and rank 78th in the nation in total yards allowed per game (354.2). The Tigers also have a good pass defense as they only give up 209.9 passing yards per game. Missouri’s pass defense will need to bring it to contain this very good passing offense style that Wake Forest runs. Look for the Tigers to key in on containing Hartman and try to have Wake Forest beat them on the ground.
Betting Trends
-Over is 4-0 in Wake Forest’s last 4 games against the SEC.
-Wake Forest is 5-1 in their last 6 non-conference games.
-Tigers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.
-Under is 11-4 in the last 15 games for the Tigers.
The Don’s Gasparilla Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is Wake Forest -2. I love the Demon Deacons in this spot against Missouri. Sam Hartman playing is a big advantage for Wake Forest. With him on the field, I think they easily get the job done. My lean is the over in this one. I see Wake Forest’s offense putting up a ton of points and with how bad the Demon Deacons defense has been at times this season, I could see Missouri putting up points too. However the official play and the one to ride with is Wake Forest -2.
