If this Guaranteed Rate Bowl matchup was brought to me at the beginning of the season, I would have been beyond excited for this matchup. Now seeing where these teams are, it is just a disappointing bowl game. We have two power five conferences clashing here with the Big Ten going up against the Big 12. . Wisconsin is 2-2 in their last four games, while Oklahoma State has lost four out of their last five games. Both teams come into this one struggling and Wisconsin is a 4.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 44.
Wisconsin Badgers
The Wisconsin Badgers had such a disappointing season in 2022. They are bowl eligible, but I had some high hopes for this team at the beginning of the season. Wisconsin averages 26.5 points per game and averages 375.8 total yards of offense. One focal point in the Badgers offense has been the running game which averages 173.3 rushing yards per game. Their running game is led by sophomore running back Braelon Allen. Allen rushed for 1,126 rushing yards to go along with 10 rushing touchdowns. Wisconsin’s starting quarterback Graham Mertz is heading to Florida. So, the Badgers will lean on fifth year senior Chase Wolf. Wolf hasn’t played a ton this season, but has had some praise about him coming out of Wisconsin since Mertz left. Chase Wolf will look to manage the game and keep the Oklahoma State defense on the field for as long as possible.
Defensively, the Badgers numbers have been great this season. The Badgers only give up 20.5 points per game and rank 19th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game (103.1). Wisconsin also ranks 30th in the country in total yards of offense allowed per game (324.2). Keanu Benton, Nick Herbig, and Jay Shaw have opted out of this game. They lose one of their starting DT, OLB and CB as they opt out of this game. That will be a tough loss for the Badgers, but I think they have enough talent to get the job done against this depleted Oklahoma State offense.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have put up good numbers offensively this season. QB Spencer Sanders got hurt and decided to enter the transfer portal, so Oklahoma State will be without him. The Cowboys will have either one of their freshman quarterbacks (Garret Rangel or Gunnar Gundy) start for them in the bowl game. The Pokes will also be without leading rusher Dominic Richardson, who entered the transfer portal. They will have to rely on freshman Jaden Nixon and Ollie Gordon to get the ball rolling for the Cowboys run game. A lot of question marks for this Cowboys offense makes it hard to believe in them.
Defensively, the Cowboys defense fell off from their fantastic year last year. They give up 29.3 points per game and allow 452.3 total yards of offense per game as well. With Wisconsin having quarterback question marks, they will have to focus on stopping the run in this one. However, they will be without Mason Cobb who is transferring to USC. The Cowboys will have to stack the box and force Wisconsin to beat them another way.
Betting Trends
-Under is 4-1 in Wisconsin’s last 5 non-conference games.
-Under is 6-1 in Wisconsin’s last 7 December games.
-Cowboys 6-0 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
-Under is 6-2 in Oklahoma State’s last 8 bowl games.
The Don’s Guaranteed Rate Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is under 44. The only consistent thing about both offenses is Wisconsin’s running back Braelon Allen. Other than that there are too many question marks about these two offenses. Missing pieces offensively makes me believe this will be a super low-scoring affair. My lean is Wisconsin -4.5 as I think the Badgers win a 17-10 game here. I am worried that Gundy’s defense comes up huge against Allen and keeps this game within a field goal. Lock in the under in this one as there will be barely any points scored in this one.
