The Independence Bowl has an interesting matchup with Louisiana taking on the Houston Cougars. We have the Sun Belt going up against the American conference. The Cougars have won five out of their last seven games, while the Ragin’ Cajuns have won four out of their last seven games to become bowl eligible. Houston is a seven point favorite with the over/under set at 57.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns took a step back after head coach Billy Napier left to go to Florida following the end of last season. UL Lafayette has won three straight bowl games and now has been in a bowl game six times since 2016. The Ragin’ Cajuns offense is not as lethal as it was last year. This season they rank 156th in the nation in total yards of offense per game (377.7). They also average 26.8 points per game as well. Louisiana also lost their starting quarterback for the season last month and backup quarterback Chandler Fields has been solid so far in his playing time this season. In the seven games that he has started in, he has thrown for 954 passing yards to go along with 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fields’ big name receiver is Michael Jefferson. Jefferson has 51 receptions to go along with 810 passing yards and seven touchdowns. They will need him to put some numbers up if they want to win this game against Houston.
Defensively, the Ragin’ Cajuns have put up decent numbers in 2022. They only allow 22.8 points per game and give up on average 373.7 total yards of offense per game. When Louisiana allows less than 20 points in a game, they are 6-0 on the season. They are 0-6 in games where the defense allows 20 or more points in a game. UL Lafayette will have their hands full with this Houston offense that has put some good numbers in 2022.
Houston Cougars
The Houston Cougars offense has been a great offense in the AAC this season. Houston averages 475.6 total yards of offense per game (28th). They also have the 10th best passing offense in passing yards per game (321.1). The Cougars also average 37.2 points per game (t-12th in the nation). Houston’s offense runs through quarterback Clayton Tune. This season, Tune threw for 3,845 passing yards to go along with 37 passing touchdowns (t-1st in nation) and 10 interceptions. Tune also added 491 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns as well. Houston’s number one receiver Nathaniel Dell had 103 receptions to go along with 1,354 receiving yards (3rd) and 15 touchdowns (t-1st). These two will need to continue their fantastic play in order to lead the Cougars to a bowl victory.
Defensively, it has been pretty bad for Houston. They allow 33.5 points per game and give up a total of 443.8 yards per game. Houston is also one of the worst defenses in the country against the pass. They give up 285.7 passing yards per game which is ranked 252nd in the country. The Cougars also allow opposing offenses to convert on third down 44.3 percent of the time. Houston will need a big performance from their defense to get the job done here in the Independence Bowl.
Betting Trends
-Houston is 4-0 ATS in last 4 vs Sun Belt
-Over is 4-0 in Cougars last four non-conference games.
-Louisiana is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
-Under is 9-4-1 in Ragin’ Cajuns last 14 games in December.
The Don’s Independence Bowl Best Bet
My official play here is over 57. Both defenses aren’t great and I think Houston’s offense is going to put up a ton while their defense gives up a ton. My lean is Houston -7. I think Houston comes out firing and gets up 21-3 early. Houston ends up winning this one around 38-24, but I have a weird feeling Louisiana can sneakily cover this number. That is why Houston is my lean. Enjoy watching both offenses trot down the field and putting up a plethora of points on the board.