The Liberty Bowl has a good matchup on deck this year. We have a showdown between the Big 12 and the SEC as Kansas and Arkansas go head to head in this power five conference clash. Both teams come in with a 6-6 record with one team doing better than the other. Kansas has lost their last three games and has lost six out of their last seven overall. While Arkansas has lost three out of their last four games as well. Arkansas is a 2.5 point favorite and the over/under is set at 69. With that being said here is my betting preview for the Liberty Bowl.
Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks started 5-0 for the first time since 2009 with Jalon Daniels at quarterback. After he got hurt in the game against TCU, the Jayhawks’ offense started to decline. However, the time off we could see Daniels at 100 percent for the first time since week six. Kansas’ offense averages 34.2 points per game and average 193.9 rushing yards per game (59th). The Jayhawks do have a 1,000 yard rusher in Devin Neal. Neal has nine rushing touchdowns and adds 6.2 yards per carry. One stat that is crazy for this Jayhawks offense is their third down conversion percentage. They convert on 50.4 percent of their third downs (13th in the country). If Kansas wants to be successful today they are going to need to get the running game going early.
Defensively, the Jayhawks give up a ton of yards. They allow 463.5 total yards of offense per game (241st) and allow 193.8 rushing yards per game (221st). Kansas also gives up 33.8 points per game as well. Since their week six loss, Kansas has given up less than 30 points once. This Jayhawks defense will have their work cut out for them going up against a talented Arkansas offense. If Kansas keeps them under 30 points they walk out of Memphis with a Liberty Bowl trophy.
Arkansas Razorbacks
The Razorbacks’ offense has put up some good numbers from the SEC this season. Arkansas averages 30.7 points per game and 472.2 total yards of offense (28th). They also average 223.4 rushing yards per game which is 21st in the country. This offense runs through quarterback K.J. Jefferson. Jefferson threw for 2,361 passing yards to go along with 22 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He also adds 510 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. Now we know how talented Jefferson is and how he can create offense for this Arkansas team. However, it is because of running back Raheim Sanders that he can do what he does. Sanders rushed for 1,426 rushing yards and added 10 rushing touchdowns. These two are one of the best duos in the country and will be a force to be reckoned with in this Liberty Bowl matchup.
Defensively, the Razorbacks have not been good. They give up 28.8 points per game and allow 472.9 total yards of offense per game (249th). Arkansas’ run defense has not been great either as they allow 179.5 rushing yards per game. This team will need to focus on stopping the run in this one. I think they match up well against this Kansas team, but they will need the defense to have a fantastic performance to get the win.
Betting Trends
-Over is 4-1 in Jayhawks’ last 5 non-conference games.
-Kansas is 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.
-Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
-Under is 9-1 in their last 10 bowl games.
The Don’s Liberty Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is Arkansas -2.5 and under 69. This is the first time all bowl season that I am doubling down on a game. Arkansas plays in a tougher conference and has played tougher opponents and that is the reason I am taking them today. I am taking the under for two reasons, one the bowl game unders have hit a lot and the second is the wind gusts in Memphis are up towards 22 mph. It’ll be a huge rushing game from both sides and Arkansas will control the time of possession in this one to get the win, the cover and the under.