Our first bowl game of the slate takes us to Annapolis for the Military Bowl. We have the American Athletic Conference going up against the ACC in this one as UCF and Duke take the field. UCF comes into the Military Bowl winning four out of their last six games this season. While Duke comes in winning four out of their last five games. Both teams finished with winning records and the Blue Devils are the favorite in this one. Duke is a 3.5 point favorite and the over/under set at 62.5. With that being said here is my betting preview for the Military Bowl.
UCF Knights
The Knights put together a good season in 2022. They won nine games and their offense was clicking on all cylinders. UCF averages 34.4 points per game (26th) while rushing for 236.1 rushing yards per game (15th). Also the Knights were just shy of averaging 500 yards of total offense per game (493.1). UCF’s offense is led by senior quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. Plumlee has thrown for 2,404 passing yards to go along with 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. John Rhys Plumlee was also their leading rusher this season (841 rushing yards, 5.8 ypc and 11 touchdowns).
While Plumlee is the focal point of this offense the other component is running back Isaiah Bowser. Bowser rushed for 760 rushing yards and had 14 rushing touchdowns. These two are the main parts of this Knights offense and the Blue Devils will have to focus on shutting them down. If the Plumlee/Bowser duo can get going early, it will be a long day for the Blue Devils’ defense in this Military Bowl matchup.
Defensively, the Knights are average. They allow 23.2 points per game and allow just under 400 total yards of offense per game. Duke has a good offense and UCF will have to lock in and focus on committing them to be a one-dimensional team. If the Knights want to come out on top they are going to need a good effort from their defense.
Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils had a really good bounce back season with first year head coach Mike Elko. Elko was named ACC coach of the year after he turned this Blue Devils team from a 3-9 team to an 8-4 team. Duke averages 33.1 points per game (32nd) and averages 430.1 total yards of offense per game (68th). This offense is led by quarterback Riley Leonard. Leonard who is a sophomore quarterback threw for 2,794 yards to go along with 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Leonard also added 636 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns. Another key factor in this offense is running back Jordan Waters. Waters rushed for 561 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per carry and 8 touchdowns. With Riley Leonard at quarterback, this Blue Devils offense has been great in 2022. They will need Leonard to have yet another good game to bring home the Military Bowl victory.
Defensively, the Blue Devils have been very good at stopping the run this year. They give up 120.3 rushing yards per game on average and allow 22.8 points per game. Given how UCF’s offense is top 15 in the country in rushing yards per game, Duke will need their run defense to step up in a huge way. The goal for the Duke defense is to make someone besides John Rhys Plumlee beat them.
Betting Trends
-Under is 4-1 in Knights last 5 non-conference games.
-Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
-Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
-Over is 6-0 in Duke’s last 6 bowl games.
The Don’s Military Bowl Best Bet
My official play here is UCF +3.5. I love the Knights in this spot and I think UCF should be the favorite in this one. Both these offenses are going to battle back and forth and this is going to be a very close game. My lean in this game is actually the under. I know it is crazy to believe, but bowl unders have been hitting at a 66.6 percent rate so far. Something just makes me believe that this chance we will get a shootout on our hands. However, take the Knights and the points in this one.