The Iowa Hawkeyes and Kentucky Wildcats have played against each other one time in the history of college football. That matchup occurred in the Vrbo Citrus Bowl 364 days ago. After both schools regressed toward the mean in 2022, the team’s face off for a second consecutive postseason in the Music City Bowl.
The Hawkeyes nearly made a surprise trip to Indianapolis in December, winning four of its last five games, but squandered a shot at the Big Ten Championship Game with a loss to Nebraska to close out the regular season. Meanwhile, Kentucky enters the game as the losers of three of its final four games. Iowa is a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 31.5, tying the lowest total in bowl history.
Iowa Hawkeyes
This has been a horrendously bad season for Kirk Ferentz and this Iowa Hawkeyes team. Iowa averages 17.4 points and 277.6 total yards of offense per game (252nd). Iowa’s offense struggled mightily under quarterback Spencer Petras, but his backup Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal. That leaves third-string quarterback Joe Labas to run the offense.
Tight end Sam Laporta should receive plenty of action with Labas making the start. Laporta had 53 receptions, 601 yards, and 1 touchdown, but the dragging numbers fall on Petras’ inability to find his best target. Running back Kaleb Johnson rushed for 757 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2022, too.
Defensively, the Iowa Hawkeyes haven’t missed a beat. It’s 10th in total yards allowed (295.8), 17th in passing yards, and 20th in rushing yards allowed, allowing just 14.4 points per game.
Kentucky Wildcats
The Kentucky Wildcats came into this season ripping hot, starting 4-0, but finished 3-5 in its last eight games. This Wildcats offense will be without Will Levis and Chris Rodriguez who entered the NFL Draft following the end of the regular season. Levis threw for 2,406 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Rodriguez rushed for 904 yards and 6 touchdowns. Kentucky will roll with third-string quarterback Destin Wade and fourth-string running back Jutahn McClain.
Defensively, Kentucky was very good against the pass, allowing just 173.4 passing yards and 19.1 points per game.
Betting Trends
- Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 bowl games.
- Over is 5-2 in Iowa’s last 7 bowl games.
- Under is 13-3 in Kentucky’s last 16 games overall.
- Kentucky is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall.
The Don’s Music City Bowl Best Bet
The official play in this one is what I call a “challenge play”. I am challenging myself with the under 31.5. Both of these defenses are fantastic and the offenses are missing key pieces. I think this is a field goal game and nothing more than that. The lean is Kentucky +2.5. However, the best bet is the under. Enjoy the punts and have fun watching nobody score.