This matchup would have been an absolute shootout if it was played in October. However, the New Mexico Bowl will still be an interesting one with SMU going up against BYU. SMU won four out of their last five games, and BYU has won three in a row to make up for going winless in October. The opening line had the over at 74, but without a couple of key players for both sides the over/under is set at 64.5. SMU are also a 4-point favorite in this New Mexico Bowl game. Here is my betting preview for the New Mexico Bowl.
SMU Mustangs
The SMU Mustangs have watched their former coach Sonny Dykes take TCU to the CFB playoff. However, the Mustangs have still put together a good season offensively led by quarterback Tanner Mordecai. Mordecai has thrown for 3,306 passing yards to go along with 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The Mustangs rank 16th in the country in total yards of total offense per game (490.2). They are also 10th in passing yards per game (324.9) and 12th in points per game (38.4). BYU’s defense struggles to stop the pass, and if SMU wins this game it is because Tanner Mordecai will dominate through the air.
Defensively, SMU struggled all year long. They rank tied-253rd in points per game allowed (34.7) and give up a total of 460.8 yards per game (tied-235th). Their run defense is bad, allowing up 203.2 rushing yards per game (233rd in the country). SMU needs a good performance defensively to win this New Mexico Bowl matchup.
BYU Cougars
BYU has been great since November and is going into this bowl game without their starting quarterback Jaren Hall. It is a huge blow to the Cougars offense as he is a legit dual threat. They have three guys that are super raw in Cade Finnegan, Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters, and Nick Billoups who could replace Hall. One of those names should start for BYU, and that will be interesting to see how that plays out. BYU will need their rushing attack to perform very well in order to keep SMU’s high powered passing attack off the field. This will be led by running back Chris Brooks. If Brooks can help BYU move the chains, the offense will open up against this bad SMU defense.
Defensively, BYU has been mediocre for most of the season. They give up 30 points a game and 416.6 total yards of offense per game. Their passing defense needs to step up in a huge way if they want to beat SMU. If BYU’s (170th) ranked pass defense in passing yards allowed per game can contain Tanner Mordecai, they have a chance to win this game.
Betting Trends
-SMU unders are 5-1 in their last six bowl games.
-Over is 5-2 in BYU’s last seven bowl games.
-SMU is 2-5 ATS in last seven vs a team with a winning record.
-BYU is 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl games.
The Don’s New Mexico Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is SMU -4. In the second ever bowl matchup between these two, SMU gets revenge for the 1980 Holiday Bowl. I think without Jaren Hall, BYU’s offense is going to seriously struggle in this one. My lean is under 64.5, because I don’t think both offenses put up 30 points in this game. I see this ending as a 34-17 victory for the SMU Mustangs.
