The R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl is a fantastic matchup between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the South Alabama Jaguars. Conference-USA going up against the Sun Belt should be an interesting opportunity to not only see how good these two teams are but to see how good some of these non-power five conferences are. South Alabama has won their last five games overall while the Hilltoppers have won three out of their last four. The Jaguars are a 4.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 56. Here is my betting preview for the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers had starting quarterback Austin Reed enter the transfer portal only to come out of it a week later. The gunslinger threw for 4,247 passing yards (second in the nation) to go along with 36 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also added eight rushing touchdowns. This passing offense is one of the best in the country, averaging 339 passing yards per game (fourth in the country). They also average 35.8 points per game (T-18th). Reed’s two main targets are Malachi Corley (90 REC, 1,179 YDS, 9 TD) and Daewood Davis (63 REC, 872 YDS, 7 TD). One struggle of this offense is their running game (144.3 rushing yards per game). If they can’t get the run going, it is going to be a long day for this good offense.
Defensively, the Hilltoppers have had some issues. They only allow 23.5 PPG, which is their best statistic. Even still, Western Kentucky gives up 395.4 total yards of offense per game, with 155.8 of those yards coming on the ground. The Hilltoppers are going to face South Alabama’s good offense, which will create a struggle. Western Kentucky needs to get takeaways too; they are 7-0 this season when forcing 2+ turnovers. They are 1-5 when they are under that mark this season.
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama has been solid offensively this season. They average 31.9 PPG to go along with 434.9 total yards of offense per game. The Jaguars are led by quarterback Carter Bradley, who has thrown for 2,966 passing yards with 25 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Bradley has three receivers with over 700 receiving yards this season to target. Caullin Lacy (746 receiving yards and six touchdowns), Jalen Wayne (794 receiving yards and nine touchdowns) and Devin Voisin (714 receiving yards and four touchdowns) have been key pieces to this passing attack. Another thing going for this Jaguar offense is running back La’Damian Webb, who has rushed for over 1,000 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry with 13 rushing touchdowns. If South Alabama can get their running game going early in this New Orleans Bowl matchup, it will create an issue for the Western Kentucky defense.
Defensively, South Alabama is a top-five team against the run, allowing a mere 88.8 rushing yards per game. They also only give up 323.2 total yards of offense per game (T-29th in the nation). One thing South Alabama struggles with is defending the pass. If Austin Reed plays, the Hilltoppers have a top-five passing offense in the country. South Alabama needs to contain Western Kentucky’s great air raid style of offense in order to come out on top in the New Orleans Bowl.
Betting Trends
-Over is 4-0 in Hilltoppers last 4 games in December.
-Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs a team with a winning record.
-South Alabama are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
-Over is 3-0-1 in Jaguars last 4 games overall.
The Don’s New Orleans Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is over 56. Both offenses can score, and I don’t think there will be a ton of stops in this one. I would lean Western Kentucky +4.5 because of the Hilltoppers’ air raid passing game. However, I am worried that Austin Reed still might not play so, instead of picking the side, we will take the over and enjoy watching both teams score points in the New Orleans Bowl.