With Christmas over and done with we are now in the heart of bowl season and it starts with the Quick Lane Bowl. The matchup is between New Mexico State and Bowling Green. We got the FBS Independent going up against the MAC. New Mexico State has won five out of their last six games to become bowl eligible. While Bowling Green has won four out of their last six games as well. Bowling Green is a 3.5 point favorite and the over/under set at 48.5. With that being said, here is my betting preview for the 2022 Quick Lane Bowl.

New Mexico State Aggies

In Jerry Kill’s first season, the Aggies took a huge step forward. New Mexico State is bowl eligible for the first time since 2017. It’s been an uphill battle, but the Aggies are back playing in bowl games. They average 25.6 points per game and put up a total of 333.8 total yards of offense per game. New Mexico State is led by quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia threw for 1,275 passing yards to go along with 11 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. He also rushed for 443 rushing yards to go along with 5.5 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns. The key for this Aggies offense is their running game. They have no receivers with more than 20 receptions this season. So they have needed their running game to help bring them back into a bowl game. New Mexico State’s running game is led by Jamoni Jones (368 rushing yards 6 touchdowns) and Star Thomas (472 rushing yards 5 touchdowns). The Aggies need Pavia, Jones, and Thomas to have a good day if they want to move the ball against Bowling Green. 

Defensively, the Aggies are very good at defending the pass. They rank 32nd in the nation in passing yards allowed per game (183.7). The Aggies also give up 24.3 points per game and allow 353.3 total yards of offense per game as well. New Mexico State needs to keep the Bowling Green offense to under 20 points. They are 1-6 in seven games this season when giving up 20 or more points per game. If they can keep them under 20 points, it will put them in the right direction to win the Quick Lane Bowl.

Bowling Green Falcons

The Bowling Green Falcons are an interesting football team. They average 23.8 points per game and put up 357.7 total yards of offense per game (182nd in the nation). The Falcons also average 236.8 passing yards per game as well. Bowling Green is led by quarterback Matt McDonald. McDonald has thrown for 2,639 passing yards to go along with 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. His number-one receiver Odieu Hiliare put together a pretty good season. Hiliare has 55 receptions to go along with 720 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. Bowling Green’s rushing attack has struggled this season as they barely put up 100 rushing yards per game. The Falcons’ leading rusher is Jaison Patterson who has 560 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry. Bowling Green will need to get their running game going early in order to keep New Mexico State’s good pass defense on their toes. 

Defensively, the Falcons have absolutely struggled. Bowling Green gives up 33.3 points per game and a total of 493.4 of offense per game as well. They also allow 257.7 passing yards per game as well. New Mexico State’s passing offense is not great and the Bowling Green’s pass defense is also not great. Something has to give and hopefully, the Falcons’ defense can play a huge part in a potential Quick Lane Bowl victory. 

Betting Trends

-Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games overall.

-Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

-Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 non-conference games.
-Bowling Green is 4-7-1 ATS this season.

The Don’s Quick Lane Bowl Best Bet

My official play is over 48.5. Both defenses give up a ton of points and these offenses will find their strides early and often. My lean is New Mexico State +3.5. I think the Aggies should keep it within a field goal in this one, but I am nervous about how the Falcons’ passing attack can get going. So I will take the over and watch both offenses put in work against their opposing defenses. The Quick Lane Bowl should be an exciting one nonetheless.