The ReliaQuest Bowl matchup has the hearts of football friends around the world. We have a power five conference matchup. The SEC is being represented by Mississippi State while the Big Ten is represented by Illinois. Mississippi State comes into this one winning three out of their last four, while Illinois come in losing three out of their last four as well. The Mississippi State Bulldogs lost their head coach Mike Leach due to a heart condition. This game will mean a lot to the Bulldogs and their fans. Mississippi State are 2.5 point favorites with the over/under set at 46. With that being said here is my betting preview for the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Mississippi State Bulldogs will come into this one with an energy that we haven’t seen from this Bulldogs team all season long. They average 32.7 points per game and average 412.9 total yards of offense per game as well (92nd). The Bulldogs are an air raid style offense which was a Mike Leach special. They average 314.3 passing yards per game (13th) and this air raid offense is led by quarterback Will Rogers. Rogers threw for 3,713 passing yards to go along with 34 passing touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He spread the ball around with a plethora of recievers. Illinois has a top-ten pass defense and if Mississippi State wants to win this one, they will have to get past that top-ten pass defense.
Defensively, the Bulldogs allow 24.2 points per game. Mississippi State allows 143.6 passing yards per game (100th) and allows 364.3 total yards of offense per game (93rd). The Bulldogs need their defensive talent to step up. However, the Bulldogs will need to focus on making Illinois a one-dimensional style of offense. Look for Mississippi State’s front seven to cause some pressure and make Illinois try to beat them a way that they haven’t been successful with much this season.
Illinois Fighting Illini
The Illinois Fighting Illini have a three-win difference from last year to this year. This offense averages 25.4 points per game and they average just under 400 total yards of offense per game. Illinois’ offense was led by Chase Brown (1,642 rushing yards 10 touchdowns), but he opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They will need quarterback Tommy DeVito to step up in a huge way. DeVito threw for 2,397 passing yards to go along with 15 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Having to replace Brown’s role in the offense will be difficult, but Reggie Love and Chase Hayden will have their work cut out for them. If those two can get going, the Illini offense will be tough to stop.
Defensively, Illinois is one of the best defenses in the country. They allow 12.3 points per game and give up 279.9 total yards of offense per game (4th). Illinois allows under 100 rushing yards per game (15th) and they allow 165.4 passing yards per game as well (10th). However, this secondary will be without two of their top defensive backs with Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown will not be playing in the bowl game. Illinois is going to need other guys in the secondary to step up to stop this air raid attack by Mississippi State.
Betting Trends
-Mississippi State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
-Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs’ last 5 neutral site games.
-Under is 4-1 in Illini’s last 5 non-conference games.
-Fighting Illini is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
The Don’s ReliaQuest Bowl Best Bet
My official play here is Mississippi State -2.5. This game means a lot to both schools. However, I think the Bulldogs want to end the season with a win for their head football coach. Mike Leach would love nothing more than his boys to finish off the season with a nice bowl game win. My lean is over 46, both offenses will score but the Mississippi State air raid offense will score more than Illinois’ offense and they will cover the 2.5 point spread. Lock in the Bulldogs -2.5.
