The TaxSlayer Gator Bowl pits two young up-and-coming head coaches against each when Marcus Freeman’s No. 21 Notre Dame takes on Shane Beamer’s No. 19 South Carolina. After an unexpected 0-2 start, the Irish finished the season with eight wins in the team’s final ten contests. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks turned on the jets to end the season, winning three of its last four, including victories against No. 5 Tennessee and No. 8 Clemson. The Irish enter as 3.5-point favorites with the total set at 50.5.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
When Tyler Buchner suffered an injury in Notre Dame’s loss to Marshall, Drew Pyne took the reins of the Irish offense for the next ten games. Following a loss to USC to finish the regular season, Pyne announced his intent to enter the transfer portal, landing at Arizona State shortly thereafter.
Buchner returns from injury just in time to secure the starting job against South Carolina before entering a massive competition with Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman before next season. Quarterbacking a much different team than three months ago, the Buchner-led Irish averaged 15.5 points per game. Under Pyne, Notre Dame eclipsed 30 points per contest.
But for as much as offensive coordinator Tommy Rees attempts to push the ball downfield via the deep ball, Notre Dame’s bread and butter is its rush attack. Logan Diggs and Audric Estime each possess more than 700 yards on the ground in 2022, and the Irish’s 182.8 rush yards per game is good enough for 76th best in the country. South Carolina lays claim to one of the worst run defenses in the nation, so victory for the Irish likely means a dominating ground presence.
Defensively, the Irish allowed 21.8 points per game, but less than 200 passing yards per contest, and just 346.3 total yards of offense per game in 2022. Without any major absences, Notre Dame’s defense could dominate the trenches and make a massive statement early on Friday afternoon.
South Carolina Gamecocks
The South Carolina Gamecocks took a leap in 2022 with transfer quarterback Spencer Rattler reaching new heights. South Carolina averages 31.7 points per game and 395.3 total yards of offense per game. Spencer Rattler is a big reason why this offense was so successful in big games this season. In 12 starts, Rattler threw for 2,780 yards,16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Rattler’s favorite target Antwane Wells, put up four games of over 100 receiving yards in 2022. The Gamecocks achieved a 3-1 record in those four games, only losing to No. 16 Arkansas the second week of the season.
Defensively, the Gamecocks allow 27.5 points per game but allow less than 200 passing yards on average, too. South Carolina’s biggest issue is its rush defense. The Gamecocks allow over 190 rushing yards per game – tied for 218th in the country. If South Carolina wants to be effective they need to be able to stop the run. South Carolina stops the run, they win this football game.
Betting Trends
- Notre Dame is 2-5 in its last 7 games in December.
- Under is 5-0 in Notre Dame’s last 5 vs SEC opponents.
- Over is 5-2 in South Carolina’s last 7 bowl games.
- Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in its last 6 bowl games.
The Don’s TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is South Carolina +3.5. This has “field goal game” written all over it. The Gamecocks are 2-0 ATS as an underdog of 0-6.5 points. I think the quarterback battle isn’t really much of a debate as Rattler is head and shoulders better than Buchner. My lean is the under. Stop the run, win the game, secure the under. Lock in the Gamecocks getting 3.5 points.