The Texas Bowl is the final bowl game on the Wednesday slate of games. We have yet another Power Five conference matchup between the Big 12 and the SEC. The matchup of Texas Tech and Ole Miss could be a shootout. Texas Tech comes into this bowl game winning their last three games, while Ole Miss is coming in losing their last three games. Ole Miss is a 3.5 point favorite in this matchup with the over/under set at 71.5.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have played well in the last month. However, their starting quarterback Donovan Smith entered the transfer portal. The Red Raiders will rely on Tyler Shough to take them through the Texas Bowl. Shough originially won the starting job, but then got hurt Week One and didn’t come back until the end of October. Shough started in the Red Raiders final three games and helped them win three straight. Texas Tech has one of the best passing offenses in the country (307.5 passing yards per game). The Red Raiders will rely heavily on the passing attack to get the Texas Bowl win over Ole Miss.
Defensively, the Red Raiders could have been better in 2022. They give up 29.5 points per game and allow 428.8 total yards of offense per game. Texas Tech needs to be able to contain Ole MIss’ rushing offense which is top ten in the country in rushing yards per game. If the Red Raiders can stop the Rebels run offense, they will be in a good position to get the win tonight against Ole Miss.
Ole Miss Rebels
Coming into 2022, I did not know what to expect from Ole Miss’ offense while they replaced Matt Corral. However, the Rebels offense really surprised me this season. Ole Miss averages just under 500 total yards of offense per game and they average 261.6 rushing yards per game (7th). The Rebels offense also averages 34.2 points per game as well. The leader of this offense is none other than Jaxson Dart. Dart threw for 2,613 yards to go along with 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Now with Dart playing the way that he has all season long, it has opened the door for their running game.
Their rushing offense is led by running back Quinshon Judkins. Judkins rushed for 1,476 yards (8th) and added 16 rushing touchdowns (t-9th). They also have running back Zach Evans who has been great for them as well. Evans has 899 rushing yards to go along with eight rushing touchdowns. He is probable for this game as he got a concussion in his last game that he played in. If the Rebels get Evans in this one, their offense will be that more lethal.
Defensively, the Rebels have struggled. They allow just 400.9 total yards of offense per game and Ole miss gives up 24.2 points per game. Ole Miss is good against the pass as they only allow 218 passing yards per game. If they can make Texas Tech run the football, the Rebels defensively will have the advantage. Look for the Rebels to try and make the Red Raiders run game beat them.
Betting Trends
-Red Raiders 3-8 ATS in last 11 bowl games.
-Over is 8-2 in Red Raiders last 10 bowl games.
-Rebels are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games.
-Under is 5-0 in Ole Miss’ last 5 bowl games.
The Don’s Texas Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is Ole Miss -3.5. If you give Lane Kiffin five weeks to prepare for anybody you better know that he is going to come out on top. The Rebels offense is good and the Red Raiders passing attack is going to struggle against the Rebels pass defense. My lean for this game is the under. I think Ole Miss controls the tempo of this one and Texas Tech isn’t going to know what hit them. The total is too high in my opinion to even consider the over. However, we are all about the Rebels in this one. Lock Ole Miss in to end the night with another winner.