The Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl should be greeaaaat! It’s the ACC taking on the PAC-12 when the Pittsburgh Panthers face off against the UCLA Bruins. Pittsburgh comes in winning four straight games, while UCLA has won three of its last five. UCLA is a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 54.
Pittsburgh Panthers
The Pittsburgh Panthers rattled off four straight to end the season but will be without two key contributors on offense. Quarterback Kedon Slovis enters the transfer portal yet again after tossing 2,397 yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 2022. However, the big loss is running back Israel Abanikanda who is preparing for the NFL Draft. Abanikanda rushed for 1,431 yards and a country-leading 20 touchdowns.
Abanikanda’s starting replacement Rodney Hammond Jr. has his work cut out for him in the Panthers’ backfield on Friday. Pittsburgh averages 30.8 points per game and averages 181.3 rushing yards per contest as well. However, UCLA’s rush defense is hardly a pushover. This could spell trouble for a shorthanded offense severely lacking in the star-power department.
Defensively, Pitt boasts a top-15 rush defense in the nation. Allowing just 95.5 rushing yards per game (11th), it’s the Panthers’ pass defense dragging down the defense’s total yards per contest to 345.8 (60th). The Panthers’ defense surrenders 23.4 points per game, and when keeping opponents below that mark, owns a 4-0 record. If Pittsburgh can hold UCLA’s high-powered offense below 24 points, it should have no issue hoisting the Sun Bowl trophy when the fourth quarter expires.
UCLA Bruins
With Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet active for Friday’s showdown, the Bruins hold a mighty advantage in the star department. Thompson-Robinson threw for 2,883 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 2022. He also added 632 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry and 11 rushing touchdowns. Add Charbonnet and his 1,359 rushing yards on 7 yards per carry and 14 rushing touchdowns to the mix and you suddenly possess one of college football’s best one-two punches. These two have combined for 50 total touchdowns for this Bruins offense.
UCLA averages 39.6 points per game – good enough for ninth in the country. The offense also ranks top 10 in rushing yards per game (246.3) and total yards of offense per game (516.9). In 2022, the Bruins converted on 51% of their third down attempts this season (11th). Chip Kelly’s talented bunch should theoretically overpower Pitt’s defense early, but how often could decide the game. Pitt’s rush defense has only allowed 100 yards on five occasions this season.
Defensively, the Bruins give up 28.3 points per game, allowing just 124.2 rushing yards per contest. Additionally, the pass defense spent 2022 allowing shy of 276 yards per game. With Pittsburgh starting Nick Patti in place of the transferring Slovis, things could get ugly quickly for the unproven quarterback against one of the PAC-12’s better defenses.
Betting Trends
- Panthers are 1-5 ATS in its last 6 bowl games.
- Under is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 neutral site games.
- Bruins are 2-5 ATS in its last 7 neutral site games.
- Over is 4-1 in UCLA’s last 5 non-conference games.
The Don’s Sun Bowl Best Bet
My official play is UCLA -7.5. The Bruins having DTR and Charbonnet is a big help for them offensively. I think they control the tempo of this game and they roll to a double-digit win over Pittsburgh. My lean is the over. I think UCLA is going to put the points up, but I am nervous Pittsburgh will struggle putting points up on the board. Lock in the Bruins to rout the Panthers.