The VRBO Fiesta Bowl kicks off the College Football Playoff on New Year’s Eve with No. 3 TCU taking on No. 2 Michigan. TCU finished the 2022 regular season with an unblemished record before falling to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. Michigan set a school record for most wins in a season, winning the second Big Ten Championship under Jim Harbaugh. Michigan comes in as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 58.
TCU Horned Frogs
The TCU Horned Frogs were the surprise of the college football season in head coach Sonny Dykes’ first season with the school. TCU averaged 40.3 points (5th) and 486.8 total yards of offense per game (21st) behind the quarterback play of Max Duggan
Duggan was a Heisman Trophy finalist, throwing for 3,321 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, adding 404 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. Quentin Johnston had a stellar season, putting up 53 receptions, 903 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
But TCU boasts a multifaceted attack. Kendre Miller rushed for 1,342 yards on 6.2 yards per carry, posting 17 rushing touchdowns. TCU is 7-0 this season, when Miller rushes for over 100 rushing yards in a game. Miller also had at least one touchdown in every single game for TCU this season, but hasn’t played a defense as stout as Michigan’s.
Defensively, the Horned Frogs don’t possess a unit as elite as its offense. Allowing 25 points and just shy of 400 total yards of offense per game, the pass defense only allowed 300 yards passing on two occasions this season. TCU’s secondary is led by First-Team All-Big 12 cornerbacks Josh Newton and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan averages 40.1 points (6th), 461.7 total yards of offense, rushing for 243 rushing yards per game (11th). Quarterback J.J. McCarthy ran away with the starting job, throwing for 2,376 yards, 20 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, adding 254 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground. The Wolverines will be without Blake Corum (1,463 rushing yards 18 touchdowns). However, they will have Donovan Edwards and his 401 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his last two games.
Defensively, the Wolverines give up 13.4 points and less than 300 total yards of offense per game. Michigan also has a top 5 rush defense, allowing 85.2 yards per game.
Betting Trends
- Horned Frogs are 3-7 ATS in its last 10 bowl games.
- Under is 5-1 in TCU’s last 6 games against the Big Ten.
- Over is 10-4 in Michigan’s last 14 bowl games.
- Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 bowl games.
The Don’s VRBO Fiesta Bowl Best Bet
The official play in this one is TCU +7.5. I think that this game is going to be a lot closer than people think. My lean in this one is the over. Ride the Horned Frogs getting 7.5 points.