The 2023 Armed Forces Bowl features a compelling matchup between a Sun Belt team and a Mountain West team, showcasing the (11-1) James Madison Dukes against the (8-4) Air Force Falcons. James Madison enters this game with an impressive record, having won 11 out of their 12 games in 2023. This marks the Dukes’ first-ever bowl appearance as a member of the FBS, and they boast a commendable 19-4 record in their initial two seasons in Division I FBS.

On the other hand, Air Force arrives at the bowl having lost four consecutive games following their initial eight victories in the season. The Falcons, with a program history of 27 bowl appearances, hold a 13-13-1 record in those games. James Madison enters the matchup as a 1.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 40.5. With that being said, let’s jump into my preview for the 2023 Armed Forces Bowl.

James Madison Dukes

The James Madison Dukes had an unreal season in 2023. Head Coach Curt Cignetti took the Indiana head coaching job. However, the Dukes had to secure temporary coaches because most of their coaching staff is going with Cignetti to Indiana. Nonetheless, this offense remains talented and is expected to perform well. They average 35.2 points per game (18th in the nation) and 440.5 total yards of offense per game. The Dukes have some offensive starters entering the transfer portal, but they will still play in this bowl game. Jordan McCloud is the most prominent name entering the transfer portal, but the great news for James Madison fans is that he will play. McCloud threw for 3,400 passing yards, along with 32 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He also contributed 311 rushing yards with 8 rushing touchdowns. McCloud is essential to this Dukes offense in this bowl matchup.

Defensively, the Dukes have been stellar all year in nearly every defensive category. They allow 18.5 points per game and 356.6 total yards of offense per game. The Dukes are also number one at stopping the run in 2023, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the country. James Madison has four starters entering the portal, but they are all expected to play in this one. However, DE Jalen Green (15.5 sacks) won’t play in the bowl game due to an injury, and he is a name to look out for in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Dukes have given up 30+ points in two games this season, and they won both outright. I think they have the talent and will come ready to go against this triple-option Air Force team.

Air Force Falcons

The Falcons were red-hot at the beginning of the season but have lost their last four games, not resembling the same team. They average 27.6 points per game along with 368.4 total yards of offense per game. Ranked 4th in the nation in rushing yards per game, they boast 275.8 rushing yards per game. Air Force hasn’t had quarterback Zac Larrier since the Hawaii game on November 11th. He is expected to play, and he plays a significant role in Air Force’s offense. Larrier rushed for 579 yards on 4.4 yards per carry and added five touchdowns. They also have Emmanue Michel, their leading rusher with 747 yards on 4.4 yards per carry and 9 touchdowns. Air Force must figure out how to move the ball against the number one run defense in the country.

Defensively, the Falcons are solid, allowing less than 18 points per game and holding opponents to under 300 total yards of offense per game. Air Force is ranked in the top 20 in both total yards allowed per game and rushing yards allowed per game. Despite their four losses on the season, their defense has kept them in almost every game. However, they need to secure stops. Air Force will rely on their defense to show up and create turnovers if they want a chance in this one.

Betting Trends

-James Madison is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

-The over is 4-1 in James Madison’s last 5 games.

-Air Force is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

-Air Force is 6-13 straight up in their last 19 games as an underdog.

The Don’s Best Bet

The play in this game is the easiest bet to make so far in the bowl season. I am taking James Madison -125 for two units. It is the first two unit play of the bowl season. The Dukes have a new coaching staff, but these players are still playing. It is the school’s first ever bowl game and they are going to come out firing here. I think they get up early and Air Force is going to struggle to keep up. Ride the Dukes to the cash counter for a double unit winner.