The 2023 Cure Bowl will be a showdown between the 11-2, MAC Champions, Miami Ohio Redhawks against the 8-5 Appalachian State Mountaineers. Miami Ohio comes in on a five game winning streak including a win in the MAC Championship against Toledo. This is the third straight season that Miami Ohio has made a bowl game and is 8-5 lifetime in 13 bowl game appearances. Appalachian State won five straight games before their loss in the Sun Belt Championship to Troy. The Mountaineers have appeared in seven bowl games since becoming division one FBS in 2014. Appalachian State is 6-1 in those seven bowl games. The Mountaineers are 6 point favorites with the over/under set at 45.5. Here is my prediction for the 2023 Cure Bowl in Orlando Florida.
Miami Ohio Redhawks
Miami Ohio is coming off a 11-2 campaign and won the MAC Conference Championship game against Toledo. This season the Redhawks average 26.9 points per game to go along with 341.2 total yards of offense per game. Miami Ohio starting quarterback Brett Gabbert was out of the season after suffering a leg injury in October against Toledo. Aveon Smith came in to fill the void, however, he is not available for the bowl game as he entered the transfer portal. This means Henry Hesson, who has attempted five collegiate passes, is set to get the start with Smith going in the transfer portal. The good news for Miami Ohio is that starting running back Rashad Amos is playing in the Cure Bowl. Amos rushed for 895 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns. He is going to be a key part of this offense to give Hesson some confidence in this one. The good news for this offense is that they are going up against a bad rush defense.
Defensively, the Redhawks allow 16.2 points per game and opponents convert less than 30% of their third down attempts. The Redhawks only gave up 30+ points one time this season and lost that game. Since November, the Redhawks have allowed opponents to 9.7 points per game which is remarkable. The Redhawks defense has two linebackers with over 100 total tackles in Matt Salopek (125) and Ty Wise (109). Those two are key for this defense and if they can keep the Appalachian State offense from having success, Miami Ohio should have a chance to win the Cure Bowl.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
The Mountaineers offensively have had a good season. They average 34.8 points per game to go along with 459.5 total yards of offense per game (27th in the nation). This Appalachian State offense flourishes through the hands of quarterback Joey Aguilar. Aguilar has thrown for 3,546 passing yards to go along with 33 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. As good as Aguilar has been, half of his success wouldn’t be the case without their running game. Starting running back Nate Noel (834 rushing yards) has entered the transfer portal. Their second leading rusher, Kanye Roberts (648 rushing yards, 5.7 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns), will get the majority of the workload in this one. The Mountaineers offense will have some trouble against a good defense like Miami Ohio.
Defensively, the Mountaineers have struggled this season. They give up 28.4 points per game while also allowing 409.5 total yards of offense per game as well. One of their biggest struggles for the Mountaineers has been their ability to stop the run. Appalachian State gives up 178.2 rushing yards per game which is 215th in the nation. If the Mountaineers want some success they will need guys like Andrew Parker and Nick Ross to have a good game.
Betting Trends
-Appalachian State are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.
-Appalachian State are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Miami Ohio are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
-Miami Ohio are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
The Don’s Best Bet
Even without Aveon Smith or Brett Gabbert at quarterback, I am taking Miami Ohio +6 -112 for one unit. The rushing attack is the key here. They will try to run the ball efficiently enough to keep that Appalachian State offense off of the field. The Mountaineers defensively struggle stopping the run, so this is a good game plan for the Redhawks. My lean for this game would be under 45.5. If Miami Ohio controls the tempo of the football and their defense looks as well I think they will play, this under should hit. The official play is Miami Ohio +6 for the 2023 Cure Bowl.